To say Wall Street loved Netflix's (NFLX 1.47%) quarter may be an understatement, as the stock shot up 16% the day following the report. Most of this enthusiasm stemmed from growing paid memberships and strong guidance, but I still have reservations about Netflix stock.
Despite a good third quarter, I still think Netflix stock is uninvestible. If you're curious about why I have a contrarian view, read on to find out.
Most of Netflix's growth is coming from one-time effects
Netflix's subscriber growth can be traced to a few catalysts, namely an advertising tier and a crackdown on password sharing. This forced many Netflix faithful subscribers to either pay for their own memberships or pay more for the primary subscriber's membership.
In the first quarter, Netflix estimated that more than 100 million households share passwords. Now that its password crackdown has reached every region it operates in, Netflix only has 8.8 million more subscribers than it did just last quarter.
That's still a sizable chunk missing, and Netflix isn't doing much to bring them back, either.
NASDAQ: NFLX
Key Data Points
Netflix announced a drastic price hike, with its premium plans rising $3 in the U.S. However, the ad-supported tier is remaining at $6.99 per month. This is a key point, as it shows Netflix's ad tier makes the company quite a bit of money, and management thinks the lower-priced ad tier may lure some of the remaining audience.
With a sizable audience not yet returning to Netflix, some may consider this an expansion opportunity. While I won't deny this, as the reality is that once Netflix adds these subscribers, it can only grow revenue as fast as it can hike prices.
At some point, Netflix will find its limit and alienate some users because of the sheer cost. Whether the current round of price hikes is the line in the sand or it's quite a ways down the road, Netflix is sure to find it soon due to the frequency of its hikes.
Another problem with Netflix stock is that it trades like a growth stock despite lacking market-beating growth.
Netflix stock is far too expensive for its growth
Netflix stock is far from cheap. With the stock trading at a 44 times trailing and a 34 times future earnings valuation, it's much more expensive than the S&P 500's 25 times trailing and 19 times forward earnings multiple.
NFLX P/E Ratio data by YCharts.
Despite this massive premium, Netflix only grew revenue at an 8% pace in the third quarter. That's slower than market growth, which makes me question why Netflix deserves its premium.
As a counterargument, Netflix's revenue is expected to rise by 11% in the fourth quarter. But this is Netflix's best-case growth scenario, as it is combining the effects of password-sharing with a price hike. Yet, it can only muster slightly better than market revenue growth.
If I'm paying a premium to own a stock compared to the market, I need to know that what I'm paying for the stock is worth it. For Netflix, I'm not convinced that its price hikes and password-sharing crackdown are enough of a growth driver, as they are one-time effects.
Additionally, despite its expensive stock price, Netflix authorized $10 billion in share repurchases, which may not be a great use of capital.
All of this is adding up to a stock that is uninvestible in my eyes. While the market is full of differing opinions, there are just too many better companies to invest in.
