In recent years, Netherlands-based semiconductor equipment giant ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) has become something of a household name. When it comes to the manufacture of the world's most advanced computing chips, ASML is an absolutely critical technologist with a near-monopoly on lithography equipment that is used to craft microscopic features on silicon wafers, which later get cut up into chips.
There's also a much smaller, but also technologically dominant, semiconductor manufacturing equipment provider based in the Netherlands: BE Semiconductor (BESIY -4.23%), or simply "Besi." Besi stock is up an astonishing 140% with just a month to go in 2023. Is it too late to buy?
The other half of the semiconductor manufacturing process
Besi's equipment focuses on the long-overlooked "act two" of the semiconductor manufacturing process. For decades, chipmakers have poured countless billions of dollars into semiconductor wafer fabrication, also known as front-end manufacturing. A complex process involving many dozens to hundreds of steps, "fabs" create the silicon wafers with tiny features on them that dictate computing performance.
However, crafting ever-smaller features on those chips is starting to reach its physical limits. (The smallest features are just a handful of nanometers in dimension, meaning they can be as small as tens of atoms thick). To continue advancing chip technology, manufacturers are starting to turn to chip packaging, also known as back-end manufacturing. These are the steps that take place after the wafer is diced up into chips. Those chips are assembled together onto circuit boards so they can be installed in our PCs, phones, cars, data centers, electric toothbrushes, AI systems (yup, that buzzword applies here, too), and so on.
This is Besi's realm, as it's built itself into a leader in advanced packaging and machines that attach chips to circuit boards. With wafer advancement slowing, much investment can be made to squeeze more efficiency out of the packaging process, which can improve compute times and power consumption for computing systems. As the world gears up for a new wave of semiconductor technology powering a greater portion of our lives, Besi's equipment is expected to be in higher demand.
A sudden rush of value
This optimism round packaging equipment is the reason for the most recent stock surge. In November, Besi management hosted an investor day. The semiconductor equipment market is currently in a cyclical downturn, but Besi says the next up cycle began in the third quarter of 2023, and a massive tidal wave of growth could be coming down the pike. The company sees a path to nearly doubling its revenue during this next period of growth over the next few years as the semi industry pays greater attention to chip packaging. Suffice it to say the market is excited.
Data by YCharts.
Is Besi a buy now?
This trend toward advanced chip packaging has been building over the last couple of years, and clearly, Besi would have been a great buy to kick off 2023. Is it too late?
I'm not one to chase hot stocks, and this is no exception. Besi now trades for 50 times trailing-12-month free cash flow, a high premium for a cyclical, manufacturing-based business.
However, if Besi is now past the trough of the industry downturn, this premium will likely improve going forward (assuming the stock price stays the same). Sequential revenue and profit growth are expected to continue into 2024 and could last into 2026, according to management's estimates. And even throughout this current downturn, Besi has managed to maintain best-in-class profit margins. That's a reason for optimism, as higher sales at these elevated profit margins will fuel stock repurchases and Besi's dividend.
That said, after this latest run-up, I believe patience will be a virtue here. Given its cyclical nature, expect volatility to strike this stock at some point. Keep BE Semiconductor on your watch list, though. If you believe chip manufacturing -- and especially chip packaging -- is about to soar in the coming years, Besi could be a top semiconductor stock to own.
