It wasn't long ago that the stock of NextEra Energy Partners (NEP -0.89%) was trading near $50 per share. Shares then tumbled in late September after the partnership slashed its expectations for the growth rate of distributions to shareholders.

Now Mizuho analyst Anthony Crowdell thinks shares have plunged too far. This week, Crowdell cut his firm's price target from $40 to $33, but reiterated a buy rating. That's because that still represents more than 20% upside for the shares.

Growth rate cut in half

Prior to the late September update, NextEra Partners told investors it expected to grow distributions to shareholders at an annual rate of 12% to 15% through 2026. In the second quarter, it did in fact declare a distribution boost of about 12% compared to last year. But it surprised investors in September by announcing a revision saying it would now target just 6% annual growth through at least 2026.

You can blame interest rates for the change. NextEra Partners is a limited partnership that acquires and owns clean energy projects for its parent company, NextEra Energy. It pays out its funds from operations to shareholders as a distribution. So it taps the debt and equity markets for capital to support its growth. With interest rates at the highest level in more than a decade, more money needs to go to debt repayments.

A buy rating makes sense

The Mizuho analyst reacted to that change by slashing his price target to $40 from $86 when NextEra Partners announced the change in distribution growth expectations. This week's cut to $33 per share reflects the feeling among investors that interest rates will remain higher than what has been the norm for the past decade.

But individual investors can take advantage of that feeling. That's because while still higher than in the recent past, there is also an overwhelming expectation that the direction for rates will be down from here. Inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.1% in November, and many market followers expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates next year.

Don't lose track of the fact that the distribution wasn't cut -- only the growth rate was cut. That means now is the time to get into income-oriented investments like NextEra Energy Partners. It may not take much good news on the interest rate front to see the gain of 20% or so that Mizuho predicts.