With Apple (AAPL +0.05%) shares rising more than 40% over the past year, investor expectations for the company are much higher now than they were a year ago. The tech giant must now demonstrate a return to growth. Even more, Apple will need to show investors its growth rate can accelerate to meaningful levels.
Investors will get an early glimpse into the company's fiscal 2024 momentum when Apple reports earnings next week. Can the tech company return to growth and guide for continued momentum?
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
A return to growth
Tough comparisons, foreign-exchange headwinds, and an uneven macroeconomic environment weighed on Apple's fiscal 2023 performance. Total revenue for the year declined, but those declines improved as the year progressed.
By the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, revenue was down just 1% year over year but was up when adjusted to exclude foreign-exchange headwinds. Even more, earnings per share returned to double-digit growth. But with Apple stock now trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, the iPhone maker will need to do more than tread water when it comes to revenue.
Fortunately, top-line growth for fiscal Q1 is likely. The average analyst forecast calls for fiscal first-quarter revenue to increase 1% year over year. Though this may not seem like much of an improvement, investors should keep in mind that the quarter will have one fewer week than the same quarter last year.
Management noted in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call that this eliminates an estimated 7 percentage points of the quarter's revenue. If analysts are anticipating a return to growth, even with these headwinds, there's clearly an expectation for Apple to start getting back to a top-line growth profile deserving of its valuation.
That said, analyst forecasts remain conservative for the full year. On average, they anticipate fiscal 2024 revenue growth of just 3.5% and earnings-per-share growth of 7.4%. Given the stock's current valuation, investors are likely hoping actual results for the period exceed these forecasts.
Guidance will be key
All of this means that investors will not only be watching Apple's fiscal first-quarter financial momentum when the company reports earnings next week, but will also be eyeing management's guidance. Investors are likely hoping management guides for even faster revenue growth in fiscal Q2 than it reports in fiscal Q1.
The consensus analyst forecast currently calls for fiscal Q2 revenue growth of 1.6% year over year. Investors should look for management to guide for around 2% year-over-year revenue growth or better in fiscal Q2.
Going beyond management's financial guidance, investors will be looking for commentary from management regarding demand for its new products. Hopefully, Apple will report encouraging demand trends for its iPhone and its new product, Apple Vision.
Among other things, investors are likely hoping for a rebound in Mac sales momentum after a lackluster year for personal computers overall and limited major new product refreshes in Apple's Mac segment last year. Recently overhauled MacBook Pro devices could be a boon for the segment.
The company is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results after market close on Thursday, Feb. 1.
