UPS (UPS 0.14%) stock received an analyst upgrade recently (from neutral to outperform) from a Baird analyst, buying into the view that the multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company's prospects will improve in the second half of 2024. The analyst's new price target of $170 (from $165 previously) represents a near 15% premium to the current price and is a vote of confidence in the stock.
UPS's challenging year
Last year was far from vintage for UPS. If it wasn't the slowing economy negatively impacting volumes, it was the threat of strike action during a protracted labor contract negotiation, causing customers to divert deliveries to other networks. If it wasn't diverted deliveries, it was the increased costs associated with the agreed-upon employment contracts. The result of all of it was a 29% drop in adjusted operating profit for the full year.
An improving 2024
Management expects difficult conditions to persist through the first half of the year, with revenue expected to be flat to down 2% in the first half of 2024. However, management also expects a 4%-8% year-over-year improvement in revenue in the second half of the year. Moreover, UPS will lap the impact of the cost increases associated with the news contracts in the second half and start to see the cost benefits of the 12,000 job cuts planned for 2024.
Thinking longer term
UPS can grow by winning back lost volume and through an improvement in the economy. Also, the Baird analyst points out the longer-term potential for UPS's strategic and cost initiatives to help improve its profit margins coming out of the slowdown.
The case for buying UPS is a compelling one, not least as its dividend currently yields 4.4%, and investors can look forward to the company's Investor Day presentation in late March to hear more about how investments in technology (smart facilities, automation, etc.) that will enhance productivity in the future.
