It's been a good run for folks that have been binge investing in Netflix (NFLX -0.63%). The stock has more than doubled since the start of last year. Even in 2024 -- with many of last year's winners proving mortal -- shares of the leading premium video service provider are beating the market, up 26% year to date.
Netflix stock hit a 52-week high in January after posting blowout fourth-quarter results, and that's not all. Netflix has notched a 52-week high in each of the past five months (including last week to keep the streak going in March). However, it still has a pocketful of upticks to go before it can take out the all-time high of $700.99 it reached in November 2021. Will it get there? Can it get there this year? Let's take a closer look at Netflix and its chances to hit a new high-water mark in 2024.
Target practice
It's been a good week for fans of analysts jacking up Netflix price targets. Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer boosted his price goal on the shares from $615 to $725 on Monday, encouraged by recent developments for the company. He sees the potential for improving monetization for its discounted ad-supported tier. Furthermore, the crackdown on password-sharing has given Netflix an additional revenue stream now that it's allowing members to pay more to add a friend or relative that isn't living in the same place to their account. A subscription rate increase in October should also help in boosting average revenue per member 4% this year, a metric that rose just 2.5% for domestic users in 2023.
On Tuesday, it was Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkwitz taking his turn to put out an encouraging note. He is lifting his price target from $580 to $700. Uerkwitz is adjusting his subscriber estimates higher given the weak competitive landscape and healthy engagement with the password-sharing measures introduced last year.
Both analysts are naturally sticking to their bullish ratings on Netflix. Hitting the Oppenheimer target and likely hitting the Jefferies target later this year will be enough to score a new all-time high. It can happen.
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Waiting for a Hollywood ending
Investors getting giddy after a well-received financial update earlier this year isn't necessarily a permanent fixture. The last time the stock traded that high -- roughly 24 months earlier -- it plummeted 70% over the course of the next four months. Momentum is a blessing and not a birthright.
It will hopefully be different this time. For starters, a huge advantage for Netflix right now is that it's consistently profitable. It generated $6.9 billion in free cash flow in 2023. This is noteworthy because the same can't be said about most of its major media competitors. Rivals are cutting content costs to live up to financial targets. Netflix isn't flinching at cutting big checks for high-profile movies or shows. It's even getting serious about live sports and sports entertainment, with deals this year for distribution of WWE's Raw and streaming rights for the Mike Tyson and Jake Paul fight this summer.
Netflix is in a great spot. Subscribers aren't balking at higher price points and the password-sharing crackdown because they know it's the one major service that isn't cutting corners. There are now more than 260 million paid members worldwide, and the company gained 13.1 million viewers in just the last three months of 2023.
Netflix is poised for further success. The competition is getting weaker. It's getting stronger. It was always elite among the streaming services stocks, and with the market expecting another year of double-digit growth on both ends of the income statement, good luck denying Netflix a shot at a new all-time high in 2024. The stock is now just 15% away from getting there. Another strong quarter or two -- or even a rival or two throwing in the towel -- should get it there before the end of this year.
