Is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) a recovery story waiting to happen, or still stuck in a rut? We'll get a closer look tomorrow, when the company releases second-quarter results. But until then, here's your sneak peek at what to expect.
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? With 13 buys, three undecideds, and one analyst giving a thumbs-down, the general sentiment on Wall Street is that Johnson & Johnson shares fetch appealingly low prices right now.
- Revenue. Analysts are looking for the top line to come in at $16 billion this quarter -- respectable 5.8% growth over the year-ago quarter.
- Earnings. The bottom-line growth is expected to come in a little higher, at 6.7% or $1.12 per share.
What management says:
Management thinks its stock is cheap. Or so it would seem, from the more than $5 billion in stock Johnson & Johnson repurchased between August 2007 and last quarter's earnings announcement. There's almost $5 billion still available for management to play with, so it'll be interesting to see how much of it Johnson & Johnson used this past quarter, with its stock trading generally higher over the last three months.
What management does:
With a company as large as Johnson & Johnson, margins don't jump around all that much. It really takes a serious improvement in one segment to drive margins.
The one worrisome number is free cash flow, which has been headed in the wrong direction over the last two quarters. Half a year doesn't make a trend -- especially for something as choppy as free cash flow -- but it's certainly something investors should watch.
|
12/31/2006 |
4/1/2007 |
7/1/2007 |
9/30/2007 |
12/30/2007 |
3/30/2008 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross |
71.8% |
71.4% |
71.3% |
71.1% |
70.9% |
71.1% |
|
Operating |
25.7% |
25.6% |
25.6% |
25.5% |
24.9% |
25.3% |
|
Net |
20.7% |
18.6% |
18.5% |
17.6% |
17.3% |
18.6% |
|
FCF/Revenue |
21.7% |
21.6% |
21.8% |
21.2% |
20.1% |
18.8% |
All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
One Fool says:
Johnson & Johnson is a survivor. It's been able to increase earnings even in the face of the problems that it and Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) have had with their anemia drugs, as well as continuing safety issues with drug-eluting stents. That latter market won't get any easier, either, with new competition from Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), plus Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT) and Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX).
While Johnson & Johnson hasn't been firing on all cylinders, other areas have seen enough growth to keep it afloat. The integration of Pfizer's (NYSE:PFE) consumer health-care division seems to be proceeding nicely, and adding over-the-counter Zyrtec to the mix has certainly helped. Anti-inflammatory Remicade saw a nice 37% increase in sales last quarter -- thanks in large part to international marketing partner Schering-Plough's (NYSE:SGP) contribution of 410% growth year over year.
If Johnson & Johnson can successfully endure a rough patch like this, just imagine how the Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation will do when things turn around.
