With the banking brouhaha now a week old, and Morgan Stanley
Recent Price |
CAPS Stars (out of 5) |
1-Year Return |
|
---|---|---|---|
US Bancorp |
$35.00 |
*** |
11.4% |
BNP Paribas |
$47.26 |
*** |
(8.9%) |
Royal Bank of Scotland |
$3.94 |
*** |
(60.1%) |
Bank of America |
$34.15 |
*** |
(28.5%) |
Popular |
$9.95 |
*** |
(13.7%) |
Sources: CAPS, Yahoo! Finance.
Salute US Bancorp
You've heard us say over and over that past performance is no indicator of future success. But it's also all we have. In a time of economic crisis that has seen many banks fail and most others waver, I think it's telling that Income Investor pick US Bancorp is up over the past year.
That tells me two things. One, Warren Buffett is still a super-genius. Two, US Bancorp's commitment to sustainable lending has created a margin of safety that many peers lack. Here's how our CAPS community rates USB:
Metric |
|
---|---|
CAPS stars (5 max) |
**** |
Total ratings |
1,574 |
Bullish ratings |
1,449 |
Percent Bulls |
92.0% |
Bearish ratings |
125 |
Percent Bears |
8.0% |
Bullish pitches |
275 |
Bearish pitches |
18 |
Data current as of Sept. 22, 2008.
CAPS investor Buffantics crystallized the bearish view earlier this month. Quoting:
This stock is propped up by Buffanatics. So what if Warren Buffet is buying? What does he know about mortgage lending? [US Bancorp] was doing 100% financing with a 580 credit score! They did no equity refinances! They did stated, 100%! They are probably sweating their next earnings report right now. Hello people....they TRIPLED their loan losses in 1 quarter, imagine what the next quarter is going to look like. Go ahead though, keep piling into this stock. I love it! I just keep buying more put options waiting for October! Conservative lender my rear.
All-Star TMFMattyA expressed a very different view in the top bull pitch, which he posted in January. Quoting:
[US Bancorp] in my view is the safest of the major U.S. banks for playing a potential turnaround in the financial/banking industry in 2008 and beyond. Berkshire Hathaway's investment helps mightily with the thesis, but so does the 6 percent dividend yield, and the relatively negligent exposure to subprime (at least in relation to many of its peers). [US Bancorp] won't leap and bound, but it will be market-beater.
I'll add that USB's rising-but-still-low Texas Ratio -- 100% or more can indicate pending insolvency -- looks good, which tells me that Buffett is probably right:
Metrics (in mil) |
TTM* |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|
90-day past due loans |
$687 |
$584 |
$349 |
$253 |
Non-performing loans |
$971 |
$557 |
$470 |
$544 |
Tangible book value |
$9,164 |
$9,356 |
$9,432 |
$10,207 |
Allowance for loan losses |
$2,518 |
$2,058 |
$2,022 |
$2,041 |
TEXAS RATIO |
14.2% |
9.9% |
7.2% |
6.5% |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
*Trailing 12 months.
But that's my take. I'm more interested to know what you think. Would you buy US Bancorp at today's prices? What about Wells Fargo
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