Last week's market run -- the ninth straight week of Nasdaq gains -- was missing an angel.
Shares of market darling Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) bucked the uptrend, falling by nearly 10% last week.
There were no analyst downgrades. There was no negative news to report. The only real newsworthy item out of the company was a press release on Tuesday, promoting a seasoned insider to a new position as a customer service chief. We like customer service, right?
Some will argue that Netflix was due for a breather. It was one of the few consumer stocks to gain ground in 2008. The company is also now three weeks removed from another market-thumping quarter. It was so good that it even won over a Citigroup analyst who had been cynical leading into the quarterly call.
It's also not as if the home theater entertainment sector is faltering. DIRECTV (NYSE:DTV) added more net subscribers than it has in four years, according to last week's quarterly report. DISH Network (NASDAQ:DISH) isn't doing as well, but its shareholders were still treated to a 17% gain yesterday, after the company posted better-than-expected results.
Did Netflix respond? Nope. It fell yesterday, adding to the previous week's losses.
What will it take to get the market excited about Netflix again? Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) reports tonight, but we've already seen Netflix defy logic and slip, even as consumers are clearly valuing home-based entertainment more than ever.
What's that? Postage rates rose to $0.44 for a first-class stamp yesterday? Since Netflix covers postage both ways on its DVD rentals, this adds roughly $0.04 to every disc it sends out. I hear you, but this is old news. Besides, Netflix has proven resilient over the other postal rate increases in its lifetime.
Oh, and now that Netflix has been emphasizing its digital streaming services -- serving up flicks to members on their computers, TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) DVRs, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Xbox systems -- it is no longer shackled to the postman.
So I don't get it. If anything, I'm more tempted to add to my Netflix position than to dispose of my shares, like so many others have apparently done over the past week. The stock is selling for less than it did before its blow-out first quarter. Since then, analysts have only jacked up their guesstimates.
|
EPS Projections |
2009 |
2010 |
|---|---|---|
|
30 Days Ago |
$1.59 |
$1.90 |
|
Today |
$1.72 |
$2.08 |
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
I don't panic when I see a stock price falling as its fundamentals improve. I get excited. Netflix is now trading for just 19 times next year's higher profit target. You have to go back a bit to find the last time that Netflix was trading at a year-ahead multiple in the teens.
As long as the fundamentals don't show signs of cracking, let the sellers bail.
Suckers.
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