A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is TheGreatSatan, who sports a top 99.97 member rating. A member since September 2006, TheGreatSatan currently has 200 active picks on CAPS out of almost 1,100 stock picks made. Achieving 81% accuracy, TheGreatSatan has attracted more than 500 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
^Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

With TheGreatSatan expecting each of the companies to underperform the market, let's zero in on one of these beaten-down stocks and see whether other CAPS members agree.

Degree of risk
Faced with declining shipment volumes, trucker YRC Worldwide -- owner of Yellow Transportation and Roadway -- has had to take drastic steps to survive the economic crisis that has caused even shippers such as FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) to flub their results.

While YRC gained a lot of headlines for thinking out loud about applying for $1 billion in TARP funds, it ultimately decided not to pursue that course of action, saying it only wanted to get the ball rolling on discussing changes needed in the rules for company-sponsored pensions. YRC pays into 36 different multi-employer pension plans, for which it has an estimated $2 billion in payment obligations over the next four years.

It subsequently reached an agreement with its largest pension fund to defer payments while putting up some of its real estate as collateral. Also, YRC has had to accelerate plans to right-size the company. Previously, it had announced that it would trim its 2008 year-end total of 521 facilities to 400 by the end of this year. It then bumped up the timeline by about six months.

It's also shaken up the management team by firing four top executives and has sold its headquarters building. Management disputes analysts' forecasts of bankruptcy, and says its efforts will be enough to stave off such a filing.

CAPS member 92557 would agree with analysts that the end is nigh, however, as conditions and morale continue to deteriorate every time YRC seeks an extension:

I think the fat lady is already singing on this one, everyones just turning a deaf ear to avoid the obvious. Billions of dollars in debt, having to get extension every time a note payment is due, months behind in pension payments. The employees have already taken a 10% pay cut and now they find out they will get no [accrual] into pension plan due to lack of payments, morale destroyer. I dont see a bailout coming.

While the 34 other companies in the CAPS Road and Rail sector have fallen 3% in the past month, and the S&P 500 is off 5%, YRC Worldwide has plummeted some 37% as concerns over its viability have increased.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Since some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have already made their mark, it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?