A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest rated CAPS members is ut84088 who sports a top 93.43 member rating. Below are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS; *Price when call was made. Current score is how many percentage points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
When it comes to independent producer ATP Oil & Gas, it seems like a case of what the one hand gives the other takes away that leaves investors wary. At the time of its discovery last year, ATP said its Telemark Hub had approximately 250 net feet of logged hydrocarbon pay in the Gulf of Mexico, effectively doubling its predrill estimate and increasing ATP's production capabilities, along with its proved and probable reserves.

Yet it then used the opportunity to turn around and dilute shares through an offering, albeit others in the industry like Delta Petroleum (Nasdaq: DPTR) have also been out there raising cash. Then shortly after it missed fourth quarter production guidance at its Gomez Hub, ATP's CEO unloaded his own shares on the market. The company also operates under a mountain of debt (more than its market cap, as of the end of last year).

CAPS member PebbledsPicks asked why, in a portfolio designed with a margin of safety in mind, was ATP Oil & Gas being included?

The answer is that the company recently announced that the new production everyone has been waiting for is on time (this time) and there is little reason to doubt this news. Unless something tragic happens, like a freak hurricane, this stock is a fifty-cent dollar. All that needs to happen is for ATPG to execute and show us the numbers. Once that happens the market will see in hindsight that everything is going according to plan (finally!), that they can satisfy their debt covenants no problem, and rake in the cash.

In other words, because the market was focusing on the Gomez miss, and apparently ignored the larger news that Telemark production is set to soar and the monetization of its Titan production platform will markedly improve its balance sheet. In short, ATP Oil & Gas isn't the same company it was and has become a stock ready to reward investor confidence.

An explosive situation
The deadly coal mine explosion at Massey Energy's (NYSE: MEE) West Virginia Upper Big Branch Coal Mine might prompt the federal government to paint a broad target on the entire industry.

Coal mining is a dangerous job already, and the focus on the safety violations at Massey certainly doesn't make the situation any better. It also coarsens opinions of other operators, particularly those with significant operations in the state like International Coal Group and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI).

As tragic as the accident is, coal does remain an important component of the country's energy supply and CAPS member KurtEng thinks International Coal Group will be one of many that benefit from the increased demand for electricity brought about by new, green technologies.

If electric cars or plug-in hybrid cars become a popular alternative to gasoline cars, the demand for electricity will significantly increase. Nuclear will take too long to fully come online, wind resources are limited, natural gas is probably too expensive. No matter how much some pretend it won't happen, coal will become a more important energy source in the future. ICO is one of many coal miner that I believe will benefit.

Yet you can't count out nuclear energy so easily. The stock of uranium enrichment provider USEC has been breaking out as a result of stronger revenues and profits, an improving regulatory climate, and the implementation of a cost-sharing agreement with the Energy Department for its new centrifuge plant that removes talk of "strategic alternatives" that could have resulted in a sale to the likes of McDermott (NYSE: MDR) or General Electric.

Not everyone is encouraged and CAPS All-Star MoneyWorksforMe thinks funds invested in USEC could be "dead money" for quite some time.

Earnings will continue to look lackluster, and I think investors will have trouble moving the stock beyond where it is today with the significant elements of uncertainty and time. This is NOT a good year to be waiting around indefinitely for a loan to be approved while the economy is on the mend. Investors may see their money better vested in a company that can benefit directly from a healing economy. In short, this is a long term winner but short term under-performer.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and as it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?