As the proud owner of a few shares of Universal Display (NASDAQ:PANL), I was happy to watch last night's webcast of the company's annual shareholders' meeting. The presentation started off as an overview of what makes OLED display technology great, such as low power consumption, simple manufacturing processes, and light-emission efficiency, but then veered off to cover some good news.
Universal Display is emerging from its developmental, cash-burning status, and it should see real earnings as soon as this year. This turn results from the company's partners and customers starting to ship actual products, rather than just engineering samples; Universal gets a cut of every sale in royalty fees.
It's worth noting that Universal Display doesn't actually make any OLED screens, or even the chemicals needed to do so. Instead, it's in the research and design business, developing ways to make OLEDs better, brighter, and longer-lasting. It then sells others the rights to use those technologies. Its main manufacturing partner is the much larger PPG Industries (NYSE:PPG), and new partners added over the last year include Far Eastern manufacturing giants Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi Chemical.
The improved supply channel bodes well for the company's ability to keep up with demand. Licensing and commercial supply agreements with screen makers Samsung SDI and AU Optronics (NYSE:AUO) should kick revenues up a significant notch, and a new lighting-panel contract with the U.S. Navy should help, too.
So far, gross income has come mainly from government contracts and developmental funding agreements. The stock isn't cheap, trading at almost eight times book value, whereas rival OLED designer Cambridge Display Technology (NASDAQ:OLED) trades at half that ratio. But with revenue growing by leaps and bounds, and the real market not even materializing until right about now, I'd say we're looking at a true-blue Rule Breaker here, and those don't often come cheap.
The projected global OLED market size, according to last night's presentation, should reach $4 billion as soon as 2009. Let's assume -- pessimistically -- that Universal Display technologies power half of the end-user products, then toss in the 2%-4% royalty rate quoted in response to a question from the floor. Result: We're looking at $40 million to $80 million of sales in just three years, up from $10 million today.
That's potentially double the sales every year, and clearly worth paying a premium for -- at least to me. But go forth and do your own due diligence, Fool! That just how we like to rock 'em around here.
Further brilliant Foolishness:
- Anders' PANL holdings haven't been a secret since March.
- Universal Display's financials are going the right way, too.
Universal Display really is a Rule Breakers recommendation. Join David Gardner and his merry men (and women) for 30 days to see if Rule Breaking is for you.
Fool contributor Anders Bylund owns shares of Universal Display, but holds no position in the other companies discussed this week. Foolish disclosure rules are high-resolution and really, really bright.
