Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

A Mobile Russian Bear

By Seth Jayson – Updated Nov 16, 2016 at 4:48PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Russia's No. 2 cell phone provider slows down, but just a bit.

As I've pointed out in the past, VimpelCom (NYSE:VIP), Russia's No. 2 mobile phone provider after Mobile Telesystems (NYSE:MBT), has been trading at a P/E ratio near 20 while growing at around 80% per year, a valuation that would be tough to imagine were this not a Russian firm. But given VimpelCom's clear corporate communications, that price has always seemed cheap to me, and it still looks that way.

True, today's second-quarter results show a company that's slowing its rapid growth. Revenues climbed only 61% over the comparable quarter last year. I use the only qualifier because the past two quarters saw top-line increases of 78% and 71% year over year.

Earnings per American depositary share of $1.40 were only 64% better than last year's Q2, again representing slimmer growth than the 70% and 74% of the past two quarters.

There were other key metrics worth watching. First the good news: Churn was down 1.1%. Total subscribers grew by 120%, and outside Moscow -- now VimpelCom's biggest market -- the number expanded by 237%. A large chunk of that total came through the absorption of a large, Far East network, but the firm still managed 225% subscriber growth in the outlying areas even without that acquisition. Cost of adding subscribers shrank dramatically, by 33%. Though it's unclear from the release, I suspect the apparent drop is juiced by the addition of subscribers through the above-mentioned acquisitions.

Speaking of which, the firm also announced a deal to purchase Kazakhstan's second largest cell-phone provider, giving it 600,000 subscribers and a foothold in a country with a booming business in natural resources.

Investors should be wary of a few other numbers. Chief among them is the average revenue per user (ARPU), which suffered a 25% drop and was blamed on the lower revenues brought in by regional operations -- as opposed to those in Moscow. Considering that the majority of the firm's growth happens in this area, investors need to resign themselves to the slimmer numbers.

Though there will undoubtedly be growing pains as VimpelCom and Mobile Telesystems duel and try to figure out who will be the former Soviets' Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and who will turn out to be AT&T Wireless (NYSE:AWE), BellSouth (NYSE:BLS), or SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC), the huge opportunities in lands lacking hardline infrastructure make both the Russian carriers compelling investment ideas.

VimpelCom may be somewhat hidden, but it's a bit too big to be a true gem. Get ideas for undiscovered small caps with Tom Gardner's Hidden Gems newsletter. Try it out for free.

At the time of publication, Seth Jayson had no position in any company mentioned. View his Fool profilehere.

None

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Verizon Communications Inc. Stock Quote
Verizon Communications Inc.
VZ
$38.93 (-1.49%) $0.59
VEON Ltd. Stock Quote
VEON Ltd.
VEON
$0.35 (-4.54%) $0.02
Public Joint-Stock Company Mobile TeleSystems Stock Quote
Public Joint-Stock Company Mobile TeleSystems
MBT

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
329%
 
S&P 500 Returns
106%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/26/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.