4 Bitcoin Predictions for 2022

We break down experts' 2022 predictions for the leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin (BTC) has had another volatile year, reaching new highs, but also registering dramatic drops. It looks like it will finish over 60% up for 2021, a significant increase on the start of the year.

But what can we expect for 2022? We've pulled together the good, the bad, and the ugly of Bitcoin predictions. Find out what may be in store for the popular coin in the coming year.

1. Bitcoin will hit $100,000

CEO of Voyager Digital Steve Ehrlich told the Independent he thinks the ups will outweigh the downs next year. For him, Bitcoin is the face of the crypto world, and he thinks it will surpass $100,000.

There are many optimistic Bitcoin price predictions, though some experts aren't as willing to be pinned down to a time frame. For example, MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor, a popular Bitcoin bull, believes BTC will eventually hit $6 million, but he doesn't say when.

Kraken CEO Jesse Powell told Bloomberg people need to think of Bitcoin as a five-year investment. "It's up and down day to day, week to week. You don't want to be trading this on a short time frame," he said. "It's more of a buy-and-hold investment."

And -- as is often the case with crypto -- others believe a price crash is imminent. One finance professor at Sussex University told CNBC that the granddaddy of cryptos could sink as low as $10,000 next year. She says crypto is more of a toy than an investment.

She's not the only one warning investors that Bitcoin's price could fall to zero. In a recent guest post for the Financial Times, Robert McCauley wrote that Bitcoin is worse than a Ponzi scheme, in part because of its environmental impact. McCauley is non-resident senior fellow at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.

2. Bitcoin will be adopted by even more people

Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, published several predictions for 2022. One was that more than 500 million people worldwide will own Bitcoin by the end of the year. He's not alone. According to CoinTelegraph, BlockFi co-founder Flori Marquez believes regulatory clarity and improved understanding of the industry will drive increased adoption.

We may also see more countries following El Salvador and accepting Bitcoin as legal tender. And many, like Naavik co-founder Abhimanyu Kumar, think the growth of blockchain gaming will lead more people into crypto. "It’s going to lead the adoption curve because of the nature of the medium. It’s entertaining and it’s fun. It makes crypto easy to grasp," he told Blockworks.

That said, outspoken Bitcoin critic and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff pointed out that increased investor interest is, in part, a result of the amount of news coverage. "CNBC is 'reporting' on the widespread increase in investor interest in Bitcoin during 2021, without acknowledging its own contribution to driving that interest," he tweeted. "CNBC featured non-stop bullish coverage, constant pumping by guests, and an aggressive Bitcoin advertising campaign!"

3. Bitcoin will lose market dominance

One theme that's become clear in 2021 is that the crypto industry is more than just Bitcoin. At the start of 2021, Bitcoin made up 70% of the total market cap. Now that figure is more like 40%, according to CoinMarketCap data. This is in part due to the thousands of new coins that have been created, but mostly due to the growth of smart contract platforms like Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL). More and more projects are being built on these platforms, giving them a bigger share of the market.

Diogo Monica, president and co-founder of Anchorage Digital, told MarketWatch, "It’s no longer just speculative investing in Bitcoin or Ethereum; we’re talking about NFTs (non-fungible tokens), DeFi (decentralized finance), remittances, capital preservation, and many other verticals."

There are many moving parts in crypto, from the booming NFT market to the growth of DeFi and metaverses. Bitcoin may serve as a digital gold for this evolving industry. But it also may get replaced by newer, faster coins.

Bitcoin maximalists like Jack Dorsey feel that most other cryptos go against the spirit of the original digital currency. He champions Bitcoin over all other coins, believing the first-ever crypto could one day be the native currency of the internet.

4. Increased regulation is coming

We've given both sides of predictions so far, but there are very few people who suggest more regulation is not inevitable. Opinion isn't so united on whether this is a good thing.

Many industry players hope for clearer regulation that would help build investor confidence. Some, like billionaire investor Mark Cuban, argue that regulation is necessary, especially around stablecoins.

And Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and the man who said Bitcoin is "disgusting and contrary to the interest of civilization" advocates more extreme measures. He recently said he thought China was right to ban the coin. "They’re right to step out, step hard on booms and to not let them go too far. The extent that my country doesn’t do that we’re inferior to China," he said.

Still a lot of unknowns

Whether you believe Bitcoin is on the cusp of a new breakout or on the verge of collapse, one thing is certain: Cryptocurrency remains a divisive topic.

If you're considering buying Bitcoin, research the industry and understand the risks involved. We don't know what impact increased regulation will have, or what form that regulation will take -- and there's still a chance that other technologies could take the wind out of Bitcoin's sails.

Buy from a reputable cryptocurrency exchange, and don't spend more than you can afford to lose. That way, you minimize the risks of getting badly burned if things go wrong.

Emma Newbery owns Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Bitcoin.