15 E-Commerce Stocks That Should Do Just Fine in a Recession

E-commerce began shortly after the internet and computer technology made the whole thing possible, and it’s been growing ever since.

The pandemic turbocharged that trend, helping grow e-commerce from 15% of total global retail sales in 2019 to an estimated 22% today, according to Morgan Stanley.

And it's not just retail. Business-to-business sales online also are beneficiaries of these trends, and well-run, solid businesses providing essential pieces of the supply chain from raw materials to final delivery will continue to thrive as whatever economic headwinds are on the horizon arrive and then abate.

Here are some e-commerce stocks to consider that should do just fine should a recession arrive and linger.

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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) accounts for anywhere from nearly 40% to more than 55% of e-commerce market share in the United States.

The estimates vary, but there's no argument that this titanic business has provided huge paybacks for investors, earning a total return that would have turned a $10,000 investment at its 1997 IPO into nearly $1.5 million now.

Even with sales showing some slowdown, this company's e-commerce, web services, and other businesses together should keep it on top of investors' lists for years to come.

ALSO READ: For Amazon Stock: There's Only 1 Number That Matters

At about 7%, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) has a much smaller share of the e-commerce market, but the retail giant is using its 4,700 or so stores to grow a click-and-pickup business that now accounts for about $1 out of every $4 spent in the U.S. on such orders.

Like with Amazon, Walmart's e-commerce growth has slowed a bit, but also like its competitor, the business is strong enough to weather a recession and keep adding to the bottom line for years to come.

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is a sort of Latin American version of Amazon. This sales and auction online giant also has an e-payments business that makes it even more of a powerhouse in the vast markets it serves. An investment in this Argentine operation provides some international diversification, since any recession's effects will vary from region to region.

ALSO READ: Is MercadoLibre Stock a Buy Now?

Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) is an online pet food and more shopping site for more than 20 million pet owners. Chewy's customer base skyrocketed during the pandemic and now numbers nearly 20 million. People are simply going to take care of these loved ones come you-know-what or high water, and that includes during recessions.

ALSO READ: This E-Commerce Stock Might Be Recession-Proof. Here's Why

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) is a dominant player in the recession-resistant business of consumer electronics. While its stores remain ubiquitous in many markets, the company also has been heavily investing in its online business. And while discretionary buys are likely to diminish if the economy sickens, people still need computers, TVs, and other digital goods. They just might spend a bit less for them.

5 Stocks Under $49
Presented by Motley Fool Stock Advisor
We hear it over and over from investors, "I wish I had bought Amazon or Netflix when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I'd be sitting on a gold mine!" It's true, but we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $49 a share! Click here to learn how you can grab a copy of "5 Growth Stocks Under $49" for FREE for a limited time only.

Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY) connects artisans and buyers of their wares, a network that has grown into more than 7.5 million active sellers and 96 million buyers around the planet.

Recession or not, people are going to look for bargains for gifting and home use and more, and that appeal alone should help this e-commerce play build on a total return record that has seen it more than double that of the S&P 500 since the company went public in 2015.

ALSO READ: Down 48% This Year: Where Will Etsy Be in 2030?

Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) has been an even more impressive performer than Etsy since this global provider of e-commerce and physical retail services went public in 2015, to the tune of 10 times the S&P 500 in total return, and that’s without paying a dividend.

Shopify stock has been crushed so far this year, down about 70%, but analysts' consensus for its projected share price sees it rising from the current $41 to about $72, which would be a mighty fine return.

Since it was founded in 1999, Liquidity Services (NASDAQ: LQDT) has grown into a multifaceted marketplace for the disposition of surplus and salvage goods ranging from general merchandise to industrial equipment to scrap metal for private and government buyers and sellers across the planet.

Analysts rate this stock a buy, and its broad-based business offering auction-driven and value-added deals alike should do just fine in a roughed-up economy.

ALSO READ: Investing in Top E-Commerce Companies

Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) has about 2,200 stores and a fast-growing e-commerce business that's now even moving into the metaverse space with apps that help professional and do-it-yourself builders visualize projects. That's some pretty forward thinking from a company that went public more than 60 years ago.

Since that 1961 IPO, the company's total return is nearly 15 times that of the S&P 500, and it has raised its dividend for 48 straight years, giving it Dividend Aristocrat status and a current yield of about 2.1%.

Someone has to deliver all that stuff people order online for their homes and businesses. Like Lowe's, United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is one of those businesses that saw a pandemic-driven surge in e-commerce business. It should help the company continue years of market outperformance and its record of 14 straight years of dividend increases that give it a current yield of about 3%.

5 Stocks Under $49
Presented by Motley Fool Stock Advisor
We hear it over and over from investors, "I wish I had bought Amazon or Netflix when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I'd be sitting on a gold mine!" It's true, but we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $49 a share! Click here to learn how you can grab a copy of "5 Growth Stocks Under $49" for FREE for a limited time only.

The U.S. Postal Service is a major piece of the logistics chain, too, and you can't buy shares in this federal agency. But you can buy a piece of its largest single landlord.

Postal Realty Trust (NYSE: PSTL) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages more than 1,500 properties for the USPS, including last-mile post offices and industrial-size processing facilities alike.

This is a unique business model and a particularly recession-resistant stock market play since the USPS pays its rent and conducts some pretty essential business.

ALSO READ: 3 Things to Consider About This REIT Making a Name for Itself With a Well-Known Tenant

Prologis (NYSE: PLD) owns and operates about a billion square feet of warehouse space in more than 4,700 buildings worldwide, the largest such portfolio in the warehouse business.

E-commerce, both of the retail and business-to-business varieties, is its bread and butter, and the company has ridden intense demand for its space to record growth and profits that should only continue.

Amazon is the largest of its clients, but there are more than 5,000 others, adding even more resilience to this powerhouse portfolio.

Terreno Realty (NYSE: TRNO) is, like Prologis, an industrial REIT, but it's kind of a little brother to its giant competitor.

Founded by a group that included former Prologis executives, this specialist in small, last-mile warehouse spaces near airports, major highways, and ports has a fast-growing collection of 250 buildings and 42 improved land parcels in six markets on our East and West coasts.

Since its 2010 IPO, Terreno has grown a $10,000 investment into $51,200, beating the S&P 500 by about 9%, and the essential nature of its hard-to-replicate properties sets the stage for a possible recession rally after a bear market beatdown of late.

Founded in 1998, PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) has become so synonymous with online sales that its name is often used as a verb. Same with its mobile-based subsidiary, Venmo. PayPal stock is another of those badly battered equities with a long record of market outperformance and good prospects moving forward. Analysts' consensus on its share price gives it a price target of about $139, a good bit north of the current price of about $101.

Amplify Online Retail ETF (NYSEMKT: IBUY) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds a basket of stocks that generally derive at least 70% of their income from online or virtual sales. It tracks the EQM Online Retail Index and has been in business since 2016.

This ETF's single-biggest holding currently is Chewy at about 3.1% of the fund's market value. Other big names include Netflix, Uber Technologies, Amazon, Lands' End, and Liquidity Services.

5 Stocks Under $49
Presented by Motley Fool Stock Advisor
We hear it over and over from investors, "I wish I had bought Amazon or Netflix when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I'd be sitting on a gold mine!" It's true, but we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $49 a share! Click here to learn how you can grab a copy of "5 Growth Stocks Under $49" for FREE for a limited time only.

Whether a recession is imminent, or already here, and/or how bad it will be, what it will even look like, all remain to be seen, but well-positioned providers of essential products and services should continue to thrive, including players in the vast e-commerce arena.

The Morgan Stanley report referenced at the beginning of this list says that e-commerce could grow globally from $3.3 trillion a year today to $5.4 trillion in 2026. That's continued rapid growth that the companies presented here should be in a position to capitalize on now and in through whatever downturn and recovery lie ahead.

John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Marc Rapport has positions in Amazon, Postal Realty Trust, Inc., Prologis, and Terreno Realty. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Best Buy, Chewy, Inc., Etsy, Home Depot, MercadoLibre, Netflix, PayPal Holdings, Prologis, Shopify, Terreno Realty, and Walmart Inc. The Motley Fool recommends Uber Technologies and recommends the following options: long January 2023 $1,140 calls on Shopify and short January 2023 $1,160 calls on Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.