- Bitcoin's current price action is trading at a 35% discount off its peak.
- More than 90% of all Bitcoin coins have been mined, however, the circulating supply is at a three-year low -- so investors are holding, not selling.
- Experts predict that the Bitcoin price could be anywhere from $10K to $318K this year.
- Cofounder of Fundstrat Global Advisor, Tom Lee, provides a compelling case for a $200K target.
Managing Partner at Fundstrat Global Advisor, Tom Lee, has a $200K price target for Bitcoin, but a lot would have to happen to hit that this year.
Bitcoin (BTC) is the largest coin by market cap, which is more than $827 billion as of this writing, according to CoinMarketCap.com. Last year Bitcoin had a respectable price run up of 60%, but it's currently trading at a 35% decline from its all-time high of nearly $67,000 on Nov. 8, 2021.
As the most valuable and established cryptocurrency it draws a lot of attention, criticism, and speculation -- and rightly so. The big question on the minds of Bitcoin watchers is, "What's its peak price going to be in 2022?"
While no one knows for sure, there are several analysts who have recently weighed in with their Bitcoin pricing predictions.
Analysts predict Bitcoin's price will be between $10K and $318K in 2022
Cryptocurrency analysts are a quirky, opinionated bunch. An article two weeks ago published on Insider.com -- formerly Business Insider -- cited the following price predictions from investment banking analysts: Goldman Sachs forecast BTC would reach $100,000 in 2022; JPMorgan had it at $148,000 last November but slashed it to $38,000 last month; while Citigroup projected Bitcoin would reach $318,000 by Dec. 2021 and has not revised that target.
Ardent crypto bull and fund manager of ARK Investment Management, Cathie Wood, has said numerous times that a $100,000 Bitcoin is possible in 2022, citing the fact that Bitcoin's settlement volume has surpassed Mastercard. She further adds that recent network upgrades and increasing use of the payment app Lightning Network on Bitcoin's blockchain are driving its scale and utility. Wood predicts the value of a single Bitcoin could top $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030.
While on the flipside of that Bitcoin hype, you have staunch crypto critic Peter Schiff who claims that his analysis of the technical price charts suggest Bitcoin has experienced a "double top" pattern. A "double top" is a pricing pattern over time that tends to be bearish if a key support threshold is breached. Schiff claims that if Bitcoin drops below that current threshold of $30,000 per coin, there will be nothing to keep it from cratering to his price target of $10,000.
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If two things happen in 2022, Bitcoin could hit $200K per coin
Despite the wide prediction swings from the preceding analysts, another Bitcoin tracker said there are two factors that could ultimately push the Bitcoin price to meet his price target of $200,000. Cofounder of Fundstrat Global Advisor, Tom Lee, said during a Monday interview on CNBC Crypto World, the two factors necessary to reach his target price are current investors moving into crypto and regulatory action to legitimize the digital asset sector.
"The simplest way to see a big step-function occur in crypto, is getting existing investors in the U.S. -- not new investors -- to allocate to Bitcoin. Seventy six percent of the wealth in America is controlled by people over the age of 65. That's nearly $100 trillion held by people that think Bitcoin is a hobby or things that people live in the basement play with. I think regulation could unlock a lot of that movement. Just imagine if 2% out of $100 trillion allocated to crypto, you could see a five-to-10, 15 times increase in total network value."
Could Bitcoin hit $200,000 this year?
While a $200,000 Bitcoin this year would be great, it's unlikely to occur. When you consider the level of dysfunction in Congress, crypto regulation will not be a priority issue before politicians break for summer recess in July to begin campaigning for the midterm elections in November. Also, there does not appear to be a catalyst to trigger a 2% investment transfer from baby boomers' retirement accounts into crypto.
While no one can predict the future with 100% certainty, we do know that over the past 10 years Bitcoin has outperformed every other asset class providing annualized returns of more than 230%. While it's likely not in the cards that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 this year, it would be a stretch to even reach $100,000 if macroeconomic conditions become unstable. However, given the strong deflationary nature of Bitcoin and underlying fundamentals, it's possible for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the ballpark of $75,000 to $90,000.
And by "ballpark" I mean my personal guess based on feedback from my Magic 8 ball and crystal ball -- so don't take this as financial advice and be sure to do your own research.
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Tor Constantino owns Bitcoin.
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