Genworth Financial (GNW) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Genworth Financial (GNW 0.17%)
Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Nov 05, 2020, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Genworth Financial's third-quarter 2020 earnings conference call. My name is Jennifer, and I will be your coordinator today. [Operator instructions] I would now like to turn the presentation over to Tim Owens, vice president of investor relations. Mr.

Owens, you may proceed.

Tim Owens -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning and thank you for joining Genworth's third-quarter 2020 earnings call. Our speakers are once again remote this morning, so please excuse any sound quality or technical issues that may arise. Our press release and financial supplement were released last night, and this morning, our earnings presentation was posted to our website and will be referenced during our call. We encourage you to review all of these materials.

Today, you will hear from our president and chief executive officer, Tom McInerney, followed by Dan Sheehan, our chief financial officer and chief investment officer. Following our prepared comments, we will open up the call for a question-and-answer period. In addition to our speakers, Kevin Schneider, chief operating officer, will be available to take your questions. During the call this morning, we may make various forward-looking statements.

Our actual results may differ materially from such statements. We advise you to read the cautionary notes regarding forward-looking statements in our earnings release and related presentation as well as the risk factors of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC. This morning's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be meaningful to investors. In our financial supplement, earnings release and investor materials, non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to GAAP where required in accordance with SEC rules.

Also, when we talk about results of our Australia business, please note that all percentage changes exclude the impact of foreign exchange. And finally, references to statutory results are estimates due to the timing of the filing of the statutory statements. And now I'll turn the call over to our president and CEO, Tom McInerney.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Thank you very much, Tim. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our call. First, I'd like to discuss the status of our pending transaction with Oceanwide. Then I'll touch on progress across several Genworth's other strategic priorities and provide a brief overview of our strong third-quarter results before turning the call over to Dan Sheehan, Genworth's chief financial and investment officer.

Earlier this week, Genworth announced that Oceanwide had made significant progress toward the Hony Capital funding and other requirements in order to close the Oceanwide transaction. As indicated in the documentation submitted to Genworth, Hony Capital expects to be able to finalize the $1.8 billion financing in November. Oceanwide is also focused on the funds in Mainland China that will provide the remaining amount of capital required to pay for the total purchase price of $5.43 per share, so that we can close the transaction by November 30, subject to timely receipt of regulatory approvals and clearances. Additionally, Oceanwide had made progress in the China regulatory process, submitting updated information and requesting confirmation of the extension of the acceptance of the filing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission or NDRC.

We are extremely pleased with Oceanwide's progress and update. Genworth's chairman, Jim Riepe, and I have maintained regular communication with chairman Lu and Oceanwide throughout this process, and we will continue to maintain a dialogue with them as they were to complete the remaining steps to close. We are hopeful that Oceanwide's transaction funding will be completed in time to close the transaction by November 30, without the need for an additional extension. We look forward to providing further updates as we work toward a successful closing of the transaction.

In parallel with the transaction process, we have remained focused on executing well and continuing to enhance Genworth's liquidity position in order to meet our ongoing capital obligations. These plans include raising $750 million of debt at U.S. MI holding company level which we completed in the third quarter. Certain of those proceeds will be used to address our $338 million of debt maturing in February of 2021 which Dan will discuss as part of our overall liquidity position in his remarks.

We also continue to take steps to prepare for a potential IPO of our U.S. MI business. We are making good progress on these efforts, and we'll continue to take steps to position ourselves to launch an IPO, subject to market conditions, if the China Oceanwide transaction is further delayed or terminated. We are also making great progress on our multiyear LTC rate action plan or MYRAP which remains essential to stabilizing our legacy long-term care insurance business.

Year to date, we have received approvals on $595 million of annualized in-force premiums representing a weighted average premium increase of 29% or $173 million of annual incremental premiums going forward. On a cumulative net present value basis, since 2012, Genworth has now achieved approximately $13.5 billion of approved LTC premium rate increases. We are committed to developing industrywide solutions to enhance the vitality of long-term care insurance industry through our continued involvement with the NAIC and its long-term care insurance executive task force. To this end, NAIC subgroup was recently formed to focus on LTC insurance-reduced benefit options.

We are working to identify options and develop recommendations to provide customers with more choices regarding modifications to their LTC contract benefits where policies are no longer affordable due to rate increases. Before I turn the call over to Dan, I will provide a high-level overview of our financial performance for the third quarter. We delivered strong net income of $418 million and adjusted operating income of $132 million led by outstanding performance in our U.S. mortgage insurance business.

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to impact Genworth's businesses in a number of ways. In the third quarter, we saw sequential improvement in unemployment trends, lower levels of new mortgage delinquencies relative to the second quarter and a robust mortgage origination market, all of which benefited the U.S. MI business. Mortality remained elevated relative to the prior year which had a mixed impact on the LTC and life insurance businesses.

U.S. mortgage insurance reported adjusted operating income of $141 million compared with an adjusted operating loss of $3 million in the prior quarter and adjusted operating income of $137 million in the prior year. The sequential improvement was driven by lower delinquencies and incurred but not reported or IBNR, favorability. U.S.

MI achieved $26.6 billion and new insurance written during the quarter, up 41% versus the prior year driven primarily by higher refinance originations and a larger private mortgage insurance market. At the end of the quarter, U.S. MI's PMIERs sufficiency ratio was 132%, an excess of $1 billion above the published requirements. Our Australia MI business reported adjusted operating income of $7 million, up from $1 million in the prior quarter and down from $12 million in the prior year.

Capital levels remained strong with approximately AUD 300 million above management targets. In response to continued uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, we are preserving capital in Genworth mortgage insurance subsidiaries, and, therefore, we do not expect to receive further dividends from the mortgage insurance businesses in 2020. The amount and timing of dividends in 2021 will depend on a variety of factors including the timing of economic recovery from COVID-19. In U.S.

life insurance, we delivered adjusted operating income of $14 million, up from a loss of $5 million in the prior quarter and a loss of $1 million in the prior year. This total included an adjusted operating loss of $69 million in life insurance due primarily to higher amortization of deferred acquisition costs versus the prior quarter and year, offset by adjusted operating income of $59 million in long-term care insurance and $24 million in fixed annuities. In long-term care insurance, we are still seeing higher-than-normal claim terminations in part due to COVID-19 as well as lower incidence of new claims. We have strengthened our IBNR reserves as a result and are continuing to monitor these trends closely.

I am proud of the continued strong execution across our teams, all of whom are continuing to deliver excellent service to our customers in a remote work environment. Out of an abundance of caution, we have decided to maintain our office closures and work-from-home status until a safe vaccine is widely available to the general public. Based on recent vaccine guidance, we will not open our offices any earlier than June 1, 2021. While uncertainty remains high, we are confident that we're taking the right steps to position our businesses to navigate uncertainty focusing on the factors we can control, continuing to operate effectively and maintaining strong capital positions in our mortgage insurance businesses.

We will continue to maximize the company's value for our shareholders by taking proactive steps to improve our financial flexibility, while working tirelessly toward a successful conclusion of the merger with Oceanwide. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dan.

Dan Sheehan -- Chief Financial and Investment Officer

Thanks, Tom and good morning, everyone. Today, I will cover our financial results for the third quarter, capital positions of our subsidiaries and holding company liquidity. While we continue to face challenges created by the pandemic, I'm pleased with the overall progress made in each of these areas during the quarter with improved earnings, strong capital ratios in our mortgage insurance businesses and incremental liquidity at the holding company. We reported net income available to Genworth shareholders for the quarter of $418 million and adjusted operating income of $132 million.

The primary driver of the difference between adjusted operating income and net income was $250 million of net gain from the sale of U.S. Treasury scripts and our life insurance business, as we continue to reposition the portfolio at a time when the market value of those securities had appreciated significantly. The U.S. mortgage and housing market has remained resilient through this period of uncertainty with improving home prices, a very large origination market and moderating delinquencies from the earlier peak.

Our U.S. MI business has benefited from its participation in this market which includes strong underlying mortgage credit quality fundamentals. We're pleased with the performance of the business and the improvement in delinquency and loss trends. U.S.

MI's third-quarter financial results improved sequentially primarily driven by lower levels of new delinquencies and incurred but not reported reserve or IBNR, favorability. For the quarter, U.S. MI had adjusted operating income of $141 million and reported a loss ratio of 18%. While new primary delinquencies during the third quarter were still elevated versus pre-COVID levels, they were down 66% sequentially, with approximately 75% of new primary delinquencies being reported in forbearance plans which may cure in an elevated rate.

Our assumed eventual claim rate or roll rate for the quarter's new delinquencies once again blended a lower expectation of claims for delinquencies currently in forbearance plans with a higher expected claim rate for delinquencies outside of the forbearance plan. We continue to rely on our past hurricane-related roll rates which were materially lower given prior effectiveness of forbearance and our experience to set for forbearance roll rates through the pandemic. In addition to improvement in new delinquencies, U.S. MI released $23 million of the $28 million increase of IBNR reserves that was established in the prior quarter as new delinquency trends improved.

Our servicer reported forbearance trends which are a leading indicator of delinquencies, have declined from peak levels in May and ended the third quarter with 6.7% and or 61,200 of our active primary policies reported in a forbearance plan, with 63% of those in forbearance being reported as delinquent. We ended the quarter with 49,700 total primary delinquencies or a delinquency rate of 5.4%, both of which decreased sequentially as cures outpaced new delinquencies in the quarter. Primary new insurance written in U.S. MI was $26.6 billion in the quarter, up 41% versus the prior year primarily driven by higher refinancing activity and a larger private mortgage insurance market.

We estimate our market share will be strong, but down sequentially, as our updated view of risk under the prevailing conditions impacted our participation in forward commitment transactions and our decision to adjust our pricing more generally. While our primary Insurance In Force has grown 15% versus the prior year, lower persistency partially offsets the strong new business levels. In Australia, the economy continued to recover with stability in the unemployment rate and moderating declines in home prices, although it will be some time before the economy fully recovers to pre-COVID levels. During the quarter, the Australian federal government and Australia's large banks extended the home and business loan deferral program which will allow eligible borrowers additional assistance beyond the original six-month forbearance period.

Approximately, 7% of total Australia households are utilizing these programs, down from 11% last quarter. For Australia MI, approximately 3% of our insured loans or 31,000 loans, are currently participating in these forbearance programs, down from over 48,000 loans at June 30, 2020. Under Australia regulatory guidelines, these loans are not reported as delinquent. The business increased its loss reserves by USD 18 million last quarter and $24 million this quarter to account for current macroeconomic conditions, disruption to normal delinquency patterns and uncertainty regarding payment holiday deferrals.

Adjusted operating income for Australia for the third quarter was $7 million, up from $1 million in the prior quarter and down from $12 million in the prior year. U.S. GAAP loss ratio for the quarter was 37% which was lower than the prior quarter, 63% and slightly higher than the prior year. Low interest rates and gradually improving consumer confidence following the initial COVID-19 lockdown drove $5.5 billion of flow NIW which was up 14% sequentially and 17% versus the prior year.

Consistent with prior years, in the fourth quarter of 2020, our mortgage insurance business in Australia is expected to complete its annual review of its creaming and earnings pattern. In addition, the business will continue to assess the appropriateness of its loss reserves, as the pace of the economic recovery and changes to delinquency patterns including payment holiday deferrals become clearer. Turning to U.S. life.

The segment reported adjusted operating income of $14 million for the third quarter, our U.S. life businesses continue to experience elevated mortality across all of our products, in part, attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also continue to experience negative impact on DAC amortization and reserves from our 20-year term and 10-year term universal life insurance blocks, as they enter their post level premium period. Net investment income for U.S.

life was up sequentially and versus the prior year included higher limited partnership income as well as favorable inflation adjustments on U.S. treasury inflation protected securities. In long-term care, claim terminations were significantly higher in the third quarter versus the prior year and flat to the prior quarter. Although we do not require debt certificates for LTC terminations and cannot make a direct attribution to official causes of death.

We do believe some degree of incremental terminations were the result of COVID-19, and we continue to monitor these trends closely. Although new claim in curls on Choice 1 and Choice 2 blocks continue to grow with bay age, we've experienced favorable development on IBNR claims from lower new claim incidence overall. Since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, new claims submissions have decreased further, driving additional favorable IBNR development. However, we do believe that this more recent reduction in incidence is temporary reflecting delays in reporting claims due to social distancing and shelter-in-place protocols and that our incidence experience will ultimately resemble previous trend.

As a result, we've further strengthened our IBNR by $24 million in the quarter. The overall IBNR calculation will be reviewed and recalibrated during our fourth-quarter assumption review. Shifting to in-force rate actions for LTC, the overall benefits were slightly lower than the prior quarter and prior year, as illustrated on Page 10 of the investor presentation. While the benefit reductions from in-force rate actions remained strong in 2020, they're lower relative to 2019 which benefited from several large state implementations.

Our filing activity for new rate actions also accelerated during the third quarter, and we expect that to continue through the remainder of the year. These filings include newer product series for which we've not requested rate increases in the past. They also include a variety of benefit reduction alternatives which we've seen more policyholders select. During the quarter, Genworth received approvals impacting $338 million of premiums with a weighted average approval rate of 28%.

We remain engaged with state regulators on the importance of actuarially justified rate increases. In addition to the approvals we've received so far this year, we're also working on current filings and hope to secure additional significant approvals during the fourth quarter of 2020. Turning to life insurance. Overall mortality for the quarter was elevated versus the prior quarter and prior year.

The third quarter included an estimate of approximately $12 million in COVID-19-related claims based upon death certificates received to date. Absent the COVID-19 impacts, mortality would have been flat versus the prior quarter but modestly higher versus the prior year. The term life insurance business was negatively impacted by shock lapses that continue to be higher than our original locked-in assumptions, as more of the large 20-year level premium term life insurance business written in the year 2,000 entered the post-level premium period during the quarter. Total term life insurance stack amortization, a noncash impact primarily related to these term-life lapses, reduced earnings by $34 million after tax which is unfavorable compared to the prior quarter.

As sales levels declined in the second half of 2000, we expect amortization related to term policies entering the post-level period to begin to decrease in the fourth quarter and into 2021. Going forward, given smaller block size and reinsurance agreements in place, we would expect term deck amortization on policies entering the post-level period to be lower than what we observed in 2019 and thus far in 2020. Life insurance results also continue to be negatively impacted by losses in our term universal life insurance product. As a reminder, this is driven by a dynamic of GAAP reserve build on certain of these policies, as they enter their post-level premium period without the offsetting premium revenue due to premium grace periods.

Though the impact in the current period was smaller than the prior quarter, we expect this negative dynamic will persist in the fourth quarter of 2020 and into the first half of 2021, after which the number of policies lapsing should exceed the number of policies entering the premium grace ticket. In fixed annuities, lower net spreads compared to the prior quarter and prior year pressured earnings which was mostly offset by higher mortality and single premium immediate annuities. In the runoff segment, our adjusted operating income was $19 million for the third quarter. The segment benefited from equity market improvement during the quarter, though equity market performance was not as strong as it was in the second quarter.

For our U.S. life insurance companies, we're in the process of completing our annual review of key actuarial assumptions in the fourth quarter for each of our product lines as we've done in prior years. As with most insurers with long duration products, we're focused on assumptions related to our long-term view of interest rates and current portfolio yields which impact loss recognition and statutory cash flow test. In addition, certain of our universal life insurance products with secondary guarantees require separate testing on a statutory basis using the prescribe reinvestment rate from July to June each year.

Given the declining rates during this period, we currently believe that we will likely need to increase statutory reserves by approximately $200 million in 2020 which would equate to roughly a 15- to 20-point reduction in risk-based capital our Genworth life insurance company or GLIC. For LTC, we expect to finalize the claims reserve review, concurrent with the active life reserve review also in the fourth quarter. While this work is ongoing, current trends do not indicate a need to strengthen the claims reserve as assumptions appear to be holding up in the aggregate. For corporate and other, our adjusted operating loss is $49 million for the third quarter.

This loss was higher versus the prior quarter primarily attributable to tax adjustments. Our approximately $79 billion cash and investment portfolio continues to perform well given the uncertain macroeconomic environment. The fixed maturity unrealized gain position continued to improve, reaching $9.2 billion at the end of the quarter reflecting improvements in the credit markets, benign credit migration and minimal impairments. Turning to capital levels.

Our U.S. and Australian mortgage insurance businesses maintained strong capital positions at the end of the third quarter. In U.S. MI, we finished the quarter with a PMIER's sufficiency ratio of 132% and or approximately $1.1 billion above published requirements as of September 30, 2020.

The decline in our PMIER's sufficiency versus the prior quarter was driven by strong new business levels partially offset by elevated lapses and the acceleration of the amortization of our existing reinsurance transactions. In addition, capital credit from our 2009 to 2019 excess of loss contract decreased as delinquency development has been more favorable than previously expected. These impacts were only partially offset by strong business cash flows. In October, as part of our normal credit risk transfer program, we completed an insurance-linked note transaction which will provide an additional $350 million of PMIER's credit and would result in a PMIER sufficiency ratio of 147% against published requirements.

The PMIER's sufficiency calculation continues to include the effect of the 30% multiplier for eligible delinquencies associated with COVID-19. As we noted in the press release, the GSEs recently imposed certain capital restrictions on our U.S. MI business including the requirement that GEMICO maintained 115% of PMIER's minimum acquired assets which will remain in effect until certain conditions are met. Our Australia MI business ended the quarter with an estimated prescribed capital amount or PCA ratio, of 179% which is approximately AUD 300 million above the high end of the management target range of 132% to 144%.

Post quarter end, the business redeemed the remaining portion of its Tier 2 debt due in 2025, leaving only AUD 190 million outstanding due in 2030. We estimate capital in Genworth life insurance Company or GLIC, as a percentage of company action level RBC to be approximately 240% as of the end of the third quarter, up approximately 15 points from the second quarter. The improvement was primarily driven by LTC performance and a reduction in reserves on variable annuities related to the continued equity market recovery. For holding company cash, we ended the quarter with $814 million in cash and liquid assets or approximately $450 million above our targeted cash buffer.

Approximately $340 million of the holding company cash balance is ring-fenced for our February 2021 senior notes maturity which we plan to pay at that time. Page 16 of the investor presentation provides the quarterly detail including cash inflows of $436 million from the recent U.S. MI debt issuance and intercompany tax payments of $23 million. Cash uses in the quarter include $125 million paid to AXA in July as part of the agreed-upon settlement, $59 million for debt service and $18 million for 2021 debt repurchases that were made during open windows during the quarter.

For upcoming holding company debt obligations, we have principal balances of $338 million, maturing in February 2021 and $659 million, maturing in September 2021. As we noted last quarter, we're not expecting dividends from our mortgage insurance businesses for the rest of 2020 to preserve capital in these subsidiaries, given the uncertainty of COVID-19. To fully address the September 21 maturity, we continue to prepare for an IPO of our U.S. MI business, subject to market conditions, if the transaction with Oceanwide is further delayed or terminated.

Our agreement with Oceanwide affords us flexibility to pursue this or other paths to strengthen our liquidity position. In closing, we've taken numerous steps to improve the liquidity and financial flexibility of our holding company as well as position our business to navigate these uncertain times. We're pleased with the financial progress and remain focused on providing value to all of our key stakeholders. With that, let's open it up to questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] We'll go first to Howard Mills with Deloitte.

Howard Mills -- Deloitte -- Analyst

No. I'm sorry, I did not intend to ask question. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator instructions] We'll go next to Stan Mercer. Stan, your line is open.

Unknown speaker

I did not intend to ask a question. I'm sorry.

Operator

We'll go next to Sean Perkins with Waterfall Asset Management.

Sean Perkins -- Waterfall Asset Management -- Analyst

Thanks for having the call guys. I just wanted to clarify a couple of things related to potential Oceanwide closing and/or the potential IPO -- equity IPO of the U.S. MI subsidiary. Could we walk through the sequencing of those events, if possible at all?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Sure, Sean. Thanks for the question. So as we disclosed earlier in the week, based on information from Oceanwide and documentation they submitted to Genworth, we expect that the Hony Capital funding will occur in November, and they're gathering the funds. I mean obviously they have a lot of different sources of cash in Mainland China.

So they're gathering that to put it in an account. But they do need approval -- reapproval, if you will, from the NDRC, and SAFE has to authorize exchange. Based on everything we know, we're hopeful that we can close by the end of the month with no need for an extension. On the U.S.

MI IPO, we're continuing to operate assuming there isn't a deal closed obviously to be cautious, although we're cautiously optimistic that we will be able to close the deal. And so we're doing all the steps. The filings that have to be done with SEC. There's some time up here, etc.

I think probably a lot on the call is familiar with that. And so our view is that we would be in a position to launch an IPO, subject to market conditions. Right now, they're pretty positive. And obviously, the U.S.

MI business is doing well, recovering from COVID-19. And so our current plans, if there is no deal, would be to launch an IPO sometime in the first half of next year.

Sean Perkins -- Waterfall Asset Management -- Analyst

Got it. And in such that they're mutually exclusive, is there any scenario in which you closed China Oceanwide transaction and still move forward with any form of IPO U.S. MI?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Well, yeah. I mean, yeah, that's another good question, Sean. I would say, look, I think that U.S. MI is a valuable business.

I would say we're disappointed on the management team that the rating agencies don't give us full credit for the terrific performance of our U.S. MI business. I mean I think the team there -- I've been here eight years now almost, the team there has had I think awesome results over the last eight years. They continue to do very well on the earnings side.

They've got significant excess capital, above PMIER's requirements. As Dan mentioned that if you include the ILN deal we did in the fourth quarter, we're at 147%. So I don't know why the U.S. MI ratings aren't higher.

Whether we do the deal or not, one of the things that we're working with the rating agencies and to some degree the GSEs on is, if we did have an IPO, so there's some public float for U.S. MI that should be a significant positive for ratings. And I think the ratings should be higher and more consistent with our competitors, given the performance of U.S. MI is equal or better than most of our competitors.

So that is -- it's possible it'll be up to the -- obviously, the new Board postclosing. But there is a possibility that we would decide to do the IPO anyway if by doing that that allows us to get to the ratings that we think we deserve now. Does that makes sense?

Sean Perkins -- Waterfall Asset Management -- Analyst

Yeah, it does. And I really appreciate that disclosure. As it relates to the -- just on the AXA settlement, would there be any proceeds from the China Oceanwide closing that have been earmarked or would be earmarked for any form of the same on the AXA settlement?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Another good question, Sean. So the -- in the Oceanwide closing, we think that will close by the end of the month. We do provide in the transaction but there's $1.5 billion of new capital coming into Genworth, apart from the purchase price, the $2.7 billion that goes to shareholders at $5.43 per share. But the $1.5 billion that's going to come in three tranches of $500 million each, one at the end of January of '21, one at the end of April, one at the end of July.

And so we believe with the $814 million of cash we have on hand, with that $1.5 billion, potentially an IPO, as we just talked about, Sean. But those -- the cash of $814 million and $1.5 billion and that's $2.3 billion. And so we think that that is -- will go toward reducing the liabilities of the 2021 debt which is around $1 billion. And then we owe AXA under the note into tranches in 2022.

And then -- so that is the expectation in terms of what proceeds from the further investment by Oceanwide, how will be used? I think that in the cash, there are other possibilities, other investments in the different businesses. But our main focus will be on using that $1.5 billion plus cash on hand. And certainly, any dividends we get next year in the future from the MI subsidiaries to pay off the 2021 debt and retire the AXA liability in 2022.

Sean Perkins -- Waterfall Asset Management -- Analyst

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Very welcome Sean. Thanks for the questions.

Operator

We'll go next to Manuel Garcia with Anchorage.

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

Hi, guys. A couple of questions. One, for the Hony Capital. I think in the past, one of the reasons you described the holdup was that Hony itself isn't providing the $1.8 billion.

They were going to get a bunch of LPs behind them to provide it. Has that now been received? Do they have all that capital, all the funding for the $1.8 billion already approved and it's just a matter of getting the regulatory approval?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Manuel, thanks for the question. Yes I would say I think we're in very good shape on the $1.8 billion. I think the Hony and the partners have been arranged pretty much and the 35% of the funding comes from Mainland China, I think that's in good shape. Obviously, we are dependent on the actual funding of those together, the $2.7 billion on the approval of NDRC and then the SAFE authorization, the window, how that conversion process works.

We do think that -- I mean obviously, I don't want to get ahead of the Chinese regulators, that's their decision to make. But from the beginning, based on a number of conversations that I had with [Inaudible] Chairman Lu, who is very close to all of them. We do believe that they continue to support the deal. So [Inaudible] it would be November 5 day.

So the next three weeks or so, we hope those approvals come in from NDRC and SAFE. And then the money would be wired out in Mainland China and then Hony Capital would transports $1.8 billion and then we'd be able to close the deal by the end of November. So that's the plan.

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

Yeah. Yeah. No, no, I don't think the concern has been the regulator. I guess the concern has really been does Hony have the $1.8 million.

I guess the answer is it does. The answer is yes or not yet?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

I think based on everything we've heard, we think the Hony Capital, $1.8 billion is in good shape.

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

That's in good shape. OK. OK, thnak you for that. The second question I had is for the $1.5 billion of new capital in the three subsequent tranches, is that money already financed and locked in or is there going to be a process next year of getting that capital improvement? What's the new updated source of that $1.5 billion? And any uncertainty of it actually coming into post deal closing?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Again, going back all the way to the beginning of the deal, a significant reason that the Genworth regulators are supportive of the deal is because of that $1.5 billion. So it's a big part of the transaction. And I think all the regulators at Genworth and Genworth itself have done their due diligence, some $1.5 billion. And so on that, Oceanwide can rely on their total businesses around the world and capital.

And so again, based on the conversations we've had in documentation on the $1.5 billion, we and the regulators are comfortable that those $500 million tranches will come in as scheduled.

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

OK. And then, sorry, my final question was you had some commentary on the U.S. MI business. I think you talked about losing some market share, though obviously still being a pretty solid market share.

You talked about being a little more conservative. Did you see pricing weaken this last quarter? What made you take a more conservative approach than your competitors?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Yeah. Manuel, I would say -- I think you all to be a little careful when you look at quarter-to-quarter market share because that's been based on a lot of different things. But I'll ask Kevin Schneider, who's our chief operating officer, to give you a more precise answer in terms of -- we think the NIW is very strong in the quarter. But I think Kevin can give you a little bit more details on how the business saw the opportunities and what we did from a new business perspective.

So Kevin, over to you.

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

Thanks, Tom. Our market share is -- continually is impacted by the execution of our go-to-market strategy. And that's including, but not limited to our price competitiveness, relative to our peers and in particular, in the last year in our selective participation in some forward commitment transactions. We do estimate that our shares down from the prior quarter.

As Tom mentioned, we regularly -- market share moves around. We gain some, we lose some at the customer level on a quarter-to-quarter basis. But I guess what I would tell you is we've pulled back in some price-sensitive areas of the market. We didn't do quite as much of the forward commitment business.

Managing our new business volumes is like managing a portfolio. We're always trying to manage the risk and the reward return trade-off associated with it. And with the extensive volume that was available in the market at this time, we chose to trim back some of that and think our share is down a little bit. But we feel very good about our share level and the level it will still come in at.

And we think we are poised to continue to drive strong share and perhaps additional share progression going forward. This is a competitive market, and it's always going to be competitive. And we react to that with an eye on maintain the returns we're trying to achieve for our business.

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

Well, just in terms of that point, and I totally agree, I think maintaining market share in a bad environment, it's not a good idea. So I think that's totally valid. But did you see pricing weaken? Like if you look on a like-for-like basis, is that what made you pull back and say, the program business that you just highlighted, was it -- do you think -- are there increasing risks that you see that make you more concerned? Just trying to get a sense of that point. It's not a criticism of lower market share, it's more, just trying to understand what did you see that made you want to pull back a bit, as you said?

Dan Sheehan -- Chief Financial and Investment Officer

No. We had a very strong market share in Q2. And there was -- I would say there was some enhanced pricing competition in the Q3, but nothing really out of black. We remain cautious on this environment.

And what's going to happen and play out with COVID overall? We think the credit quality of the business we've been writing has been very strong. And then you compare it to the last big down cycle and it's just a much small -- or stronger business volume. So maybe a little bit of competition, but just all in a day's business and the U.S. mortgage insurance business.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Yeah. And the other thing I would add, Manuel, if I look at our operating plan for 2020, I can tell you that we did not expect we'd be writing new NIW more than $25 billion in any of our quarters this year. So we you go back to the second quarter, it was over $28 billion. And this quarter, over $26 billion.

So it's always hard to know what other competitors are doing. But from my perspective and looking at the goals of U.S. MI, I think they're well above their expectations this year in terms of NIW being written. And I think it's good execution I think by the team.

And as they say, they -- again, we're very disappointed with the ratings. We think the ratings for U.S. MI are wrong. And we do think that the rating because we are lower than our competitors, even though we operate as well or better than the competitors, we think that has some issue.

Despite all that, I'm extremely pleased with how well Kevin, Rohit Gupta, the people running U.S. MI have done. So we're very pleased with the level of NIW. And as Kevin mentioned, the most important thing is we continue to price new business in the mid-teens.

And so if you look at a 70 basis point risk rerate, pricing, that amount of new business, over $25 billion in the last two quarters of NIW in the mid-teens I think has a lot of value to U.S. MI and ultimately to Genworth.

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

All right. Thank you guys very much.

Operator

We'll go next to Geoffrey Dunn with Dowling & Partners.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on that MI line of questioning. Is your sense -- with the market share declined sequentially, is that primarily due to the loss forward commitment contract or are you pulling back in other aspects of the traditional flow market?

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

I would say, Geoff, that it's -- I'm sorry, excuse me.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Yeah, I was going to take that. Thanks for the question. I have to turn it over to Kevin to answer your questions on U.S. MI.

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

I would say, as I mentioned, we were a little bit more selective in our participation of that business. It was conscious, and it's not necessary that we lost anything, Geoff. But that is probably the most price-sensitive channel in the market. And so we -- it was at that level and not really pressured from the rest of the market space.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

OK. And then I think the general consensus back in the second quarter was, on average, pricing was up 10%, 20% from pre-COVID. Do you think that still is generally the case?

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

Right. I think overall, that was probably -- that's probably in the ballpark. We -- it's probably backed off a little bit. But Geoff, it's still above the level that we -- as we entered into this period.

And it's starting to reflect some of the performance we're seeing as the forbearance trends come down and as delinquency start to decline and as the cures are doing a good job against the new delinquency. So we see overall a pretty good environment, and it's on a good trend. So I think we're still up compared to where we started, maybe not the full 20% but backed off a little bit.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

OK. And then last question, if Biden ends up winning and pushing through the shift in corporate tax rates. The industry passed on all the tax savings back in the spring of '18. What is your sense in terms of pricing power and actually need to increase pricing in that scenario to maintain returns?

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

If we are -- if our returns are impacted negatively from a subsequent change in the tax approach under a Biden presidency, I think we're pricing the cost -- our cost, and we'd have to respond and to maintain existing returns to our customers. So I think it would -- we took advantage of when the tax rate went down. We passed that along to the customers, and we may have to push some of that back if taxes go up.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

OK, thank you.

Operator

We'll go next to Howard Amster with Amster Trading.

Howard Amster -- Amster Trading -- Analyst

Congratulations on a great quarter, Tom. I did want to ask you a question on AXA, where you might get some money back from some of the banks that sold the insurance? And I'm wondering how that's going? What's the time line on that? And the second question is, can you just go over again the increases that you're proposing for the long-term care?

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Sure. Thanks, Howard, for both of those questions. Good morning. So on AXA, we made the settlement.

As part of the settlement, there are still some invoices coming in from AXA, and we gave the market a view that we thought that would be a little over GBP 100 million of new -- the invoices that we're in, but that will sort of be passed through. And I think that's all proceeding pretty much as we expected. As I have said on a number of previous calls and as you know, Howard, I spent 11 years in Europe. So I'm very familiar with all of these insurance and banking cases in terms of the misselling.

And the precedent is that in almost all cases in the end, the banking partner -- because they developed the selling and insurers did not, the banking partners were held responsible. And so my view is that's still the case. The bank here is Bank of San Antonio. And I would think going forward, we ultimately -- AXA will ultimately be successful in pursuing recoveries.

And as we said, as part of our agreement with AXA, we would share to the extent we've made payments in that. So that all has to go through a process. And that's really more AXA's decision than ours. But again, the president would say that at some point in the future, we would get recovery.

On the LTC side, we went through the numbers, $595 million of premiums, approval average of 29%. I mean that's $173 million. In a net present value basis, our cumulative is now 13.5% a day. I will tell you, we have several large states in our LTC premium approval queue, if you will, where we anticipate that we will receive good increases.

And because they're big states, they're obviously more meaningful. It's always a little hard to predict exactly when they'll come in. But I do expect in the fourth quarter, we'll have some good success. Overall, I'm very, very pleased.

Our multiyear rate action plan that we've been working on since 2014, we updated every year as assumptions are updated. So we change assumptions, increased assumptions, increased reserves. We're able to, more or less, offset that with LTC premium increases. And I think that continues to be the case.

I would say -- you know there's this NAIC long-term care task force, 44 commissioners, I think are on that. And by and large, I would say that the NAIC and almost all the states, strong support approving these premium increases. It's -- in the end, it all goes to pay claims to their policyholders. And that's part of our obligation to make sure those claims are paying.

So I think the LTC, premium increases continue to go well. They've been going well for the last five or six years. And I think that will continue. I do think today versus three or four years ago, it seems like the regulators are more open and willing because I think they have seen over the last five or six years as all the claims that come in, for the whole industry, that these are actuarially justified premium increases.

And if they are actuarially justified, their requirement is to grant them. They spread them out more than I would like. I think that they're doing that to make it easier for our policyholders which is understandable. But we are still getting a net present value that we anticipated under the multiyear rate action plan.

So I think that's a plus.

Howard Amster -- Amster Trading -- Analyst

Thank you very much.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

You're welcome Howard. Thanks.

Howard Amster -- Amster Trading -- Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one final question coming from Charles West with Balyasny.

Unknow speaker

Thanks. Sorry, I was on mute. I wanted to follow up on the financing question for the Oceanwide transaction. And Oceanwide has a pretty complicated corporate structure.

And one thing I just wanted to clarify since the documents that they provided regarding the financing aren't available is that there appears to be some real estate projects in the United States where Hony Capital is buying assets from Oceanwide. I just want to make sure that the financing for the Genworth transaction isn't subject to those real estate transactions closing because the numbers that we're talking about are pretty similar.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

So Charles, great question. The Hony Capital funds that are looking at the San Francisco property and then the funds for our deal are totally separate funds of Hony Capital. In the transaction, it's sort of a bridge loan to Oceanwide two years provided by the Hony Capital Mezzanine Fund LP which is a -- it's a listed fund. And then for the San Francisco property, the -- there is a Hony Capital real estate fund that is the counterparty in that transaction.

So both Hony Capital as a general partner and limited partners, these are different funds with different priorities. One is real estate fund and the other is a mezzanine debt fund.

Unknow speaker

Great, thanks.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, I will now turn the call back over to Mr. McInerney for closing comments.

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Thank you very much, Jennifer. And I also want to thank everybody for joining the call. I also want to thank the questions. I think all of you asked very good questions, and I know a lot of investors are interested in.

So thank you for that. That gave us a chance to I think give a little bit more perspective on those. I do want to reiterate that we're very pleased with the progress that Oceanwide is making since the update previous to the one we did on Monday. They've made great strides in finalizing the financing of Hony Capital as well as from Mainland China.

And I think they've -- we're in good shape and updating all the necessary filings. Obviously, they're waiting for the final approval or reapproval from NDRC and then the SAFE actions. But we're hopeful that based on everything we know and the documentation we've received that we can close the transaction by the end of November. We still think it's the best value for our shareholders, and we are hopeful that we'll be able to close without an additional extension.

In the meantime, we're running the company, focusing our strategic priorities including the debt financing that we did. We said around $50 million at the U.S. MI holding company level. We're full speed ahead on the IPO.

And I think if you look at the U.S. MI results, I think they were fantastic in the quarter. Australia had a good quarter, and we have the ongoing challenges in the life insurance business because we had a lot of business that was written 20 years ago that's coming through with the end of a level term and the lapse rates are higher than the assumptions made 20 years ago. And so that has an impact on that.

That's a noncash charge, and we expect -- and Dan gave you a little bit of perspective on that. But despite that, overall, for that -- the division, the U.S. life division which includes LTC and fixed annuities, I think at $59 million and $24 million, respectively, it was a good quarter. So I think, particularly, as you put it at and I'd say particularly U.S.

MI in the context of we're still challenged as a country and I guess, as a global economy with COVID-19. So when I look at the third quarter, the $418 million net income and the $132 million of adjusted operating income, I think it's just a very strong quarter, and that bodes well, obviously. I think China Oceanwide and chairman is encouraged by the quarterly results. And so hopefully that will continue.

Obviously, COVID-19 is still a significant issue, and we'll see how that plays out. The cases are going up. So it's something obviously to focus on. Again, thanks to everybody for your interest and your support of Genworth as shareholders.

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Jennifer.

Duration: 59 minutes

Call participants:

Tim Owens -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Tom McInerney -- Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer

Dan Sheehan -- Chief Financial and Investment Officer

Howard Mills -- Deloitte -- Analyst

Unknown speaker

Sean Perkins -- Waterfall Asset Management -- Analyst

Manuel Garcia -- Anchorage -- Analyst

Kevin Schneider -- Chief Operating Officer

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Howard Amster -- Amster Trading -- Analyst

Unknow speaker

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