Fueling the stock's amazing run yesterday was the news that former GE CEO and current Bloom board member Jeffrey Immelt had bought 1 million shares of Bloom Energy on the open market. I expect it's momentum from that news that is keeping the stock going today.
As my fellow Fool Travis Hoium observed in his note on Immelt's purchase, Bloom buyers appear to be betting that the company's director has "insider information about the company's direction." But here's the thing:
Even assuming Immelt had "insider information," and that it was of such a nature -- based on information already fully disclosed to the public, perhaps, but not yet fully appreciated by other investors -- that he was allowed to trade on it, and even assuming Immelt was right to believe that Bloom stock was a bargain at the average purchase price of $14.86 that he paid for the shares ... none of that necessarily means that Bloom stock is still a bargain at the nearly $18 a share that it costs now.
After all, over the past 12 months, Bloom Energy has reported $236 million in net losses and burned through $27 million in negative free cash flow. Analysts who track the stock, meanwhile, forecast that Bloom won't become profitable by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) before 2022 at the earliest -- and earn only $0.09 per share then (according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence).
Thus, Bloom Energy stock is selling for about 197 times the profit it may (or may not) earn two years from now. Immelt may think that makes Bloom Energy a buy. Me, I'm not so sure.