As the ICR Conference continues, restaurant chain Shake Shack (SHAK 1.85%) offered a presentation describing the company's preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year results, and its outlook. The presentation at the investment conference prompted several notable analytical firms, including Loop Capital, Oppenheimer, and Piper Sandler, to boost their price targets on the stock.
According to the presentation, estimated total revenue is $158 million for the fourth quarter and $523 million for fiscal year 2020. "Same-Shack" sales (its term for comps) are down 17.4% year over year for the quarter, better than a 31.7% year-over-year plunge for the third quarter of 2020. Average weekly sales show a steady upward trend from April 2020's lows.
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Shake Shack says it expects to open 35 to 40 company-operated outlets in 2021 and 45 to 50 more in 2022. It also forecasts 15 to 20 openings of licensed restaurants in 2021 and 20 to 25 in 2022. Most licensed units will open in Asia.
The presentation went on to say these accelerating new openings will be supported by more-varied menus, digital pre-ordering, and improved conveniences like curbside pickup. The company highlights drive-thru as a key convenience that it expects will sustain its aggressive growth goals, with the first drive-thru location to open in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Three major analysts appear to agree. Loop Capital boosted its price target 44.6% to $120, while stating Shake Shack's initiatives will keep growth churning for several years, potentially supporting a twofold increase of its current restaurant count. Oppenheimer pointed to digital and delivery growth in lifting its price target 15% to $115, while Piper Sandler increased its target 41% to $110.
Shake Shack's financial recovery has been strong considering how COVID-19 crushed its sales and revenue in the pandemic's early days.
