Share prices of Peloton Interactive (PTON 4.29%) are 51% off all-time highs set in mid-January, caught up in an investing trend that instead favors COVID-19 recovery stocks. It hasn't helped that management has made some missteps with its Tread recall, which lost the company a fair amount of goodwill with customers and investors back in April.
But if we take a step back and look at Peloton as a growth stock, the long-term story is still strong. The company's user base is growing, its product lineup is expanding, and financial performance is getting better. Here's why I think this stock could be a value in today's market.
Image source: Peloton.
Subscriptions are the key
If Peloton is going to be successful as a company, it won't be because it makes or sells bikes. It'll be because it generates growing, high-margin subscription revenue. And on that front, the company is doing very well.
Subscription revenue was up 132% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter to $281.6 million, and gross profit from subscriptions was up 159% to $178.1 million.
The subscription business is also a big reason the company's move into corporate wellness and hotel and resort settings is so important. Peloton has been able to attract millions of active members, but reaching new customers who are allowing others to use their Peloton equipment and subscriptions at rental locations can be another way to leverage the company's equipment and content base.
Expanding on a strong core
In fiscal 2018, Peloton was almost entirely a stationary cycling company, with cycling accounting for about 85% of the company's workouts. But in the past three years, the company has expanded how people use its products. Strength programs are now about 20% of workouts, and floor content is around 10%. Cycling is now less than 60% of the workouts done in any given year, and shrinking.
I think this is a sign that Peloton is building a product that's attractive to more users and becoming stickier for subscribers. If Peloton has something for everyone, it's going to provide much more value to subscribers long-term.
In time, we could even see Peloton slowly raise subscription prices because of the value it's providing.
Peloton has growth opportunities ahead
After acquiring its own manufacturing facility in the U.S., Peloton now has more control of not only manufacturing and inventory but also new product development. We know a new Tread is on the way, and improved bikes are likely as well.
I think Peloton could also expand into home strength equipment and even wearables. Peloton is already a critical fitness tool for members, so why not deepen that relationship?
The company has a lot of opportunities to expand its product footprint and engage even more with customers. As it does, the incremental benefit to users from more digital content makes a Peloton subscription that much more valuable.
The growth story isn't over
There are a number of potential threats to Peloton's business, from Apple's growing suite of fitness content to the reopening of gyms around the world. But I think the content library that Peloton has built along with the installed base of bikes and treadmills will make this a formidable fitness company for years. Remember that the value of Peloton is in the number of users subscribing to and using the company's workout content -- and with 459.7 million workouts done by Peloton customers in the last year, this is a workout company that has a huge lead over the competition in at-home workouts.
