After Tesla's (TSLA 2.60%) reported blowout fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries earlier this year, expectations for its financials for the period are high. Investors will get to see if the company lives up to analysts' expectations when the electric-car maker reports earnings today.
While it's worth reviewing what analysts are expecting from the company's revenue and earnings per share for the period, there's another important metric many investors will likely be looking to when the print goes live: Tesla's guidance for full-year deliveries. Headed into Tesla's fourth-quarter report, which will be released after market close today, here's a preview of some items for investors to check on.
Tesla factory. Image source: The Motley fool.
Analyst expectations
Reflecting Tesla's 71% year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries in Q4, the current consensus forecast from analysts is for the company's revenue to increase about 52% year over year in Q4 to $16.35 billion. In addition, analysts expect non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share for the period to increase from $0.80 in the year-ago period to $2.26.
Further highlighting the significant growth trajectory that these estimates mean, consider that Q3 2021 revenue and adjusted earnings per share are both well below these forecasts, at $13.8 billion and $1.86, respectively. So analysts' forecast for Tesla's Q4 financials represents significant sequential growth.
Vehicle-deliveries guidance
Looking beyond the financial metrics Tesla will report for the quarter, investors should watch management's guidance for its full-year deliveries. The company's forecast for full-year deliveries may provide more insight into Tesla's potential growth this year than any other metric shared in the update.
Last year, Tesla grew trailing-12-month deliveries 87% year over year -- and that was notably on top of a strong 2020 (despite some factory shutdowns it endured as COVID-19-related lockdowns plagued some companies), when deliveries rose 36% year over year.
For 2022, investors should look for management to guide for deliveries to rise about 50% or more. While there's potential for deliveries to grow even faster this year, it would be wise for management to bake some conservatism into its forecast.
If 50% growth on top of 87% growth in 2021 sounds unrealistic, think again: The company currently has two entirely new factories coming online that are expected to significantly increase its production capacity. Indeed, one analyst estimates that when the factories are at full capacity, they'll give Tesla an annualized production rate of nearly 3 million units (up from a rate of just over 1 million units as of management's last update on its annualized production run rate). Of course, it could take several years for these new factories to ramp up to their full production capacity.
Investors will be able to find management's guidance for vehicle deliveries in Tesla's earnings report after market close today.
