Digital conglomerate Sea Limited (SE 0.05%) was one of the hottest stocks of 2020 and 2021, soaring from less than $40 per share before the pandemic to more than $350 at its peak in late 2021. It's collapsed more than 70% from its highs to under $100 per share in just a few months, showing how the market can both giveth, and taketh away.
However, the market's cold reception toward Sea Limited may not be without merit. There was a significant area of concern with the company's fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results. I'll break down what could have the market spooked about Sea Limited and why the recent dip could be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors.
Sea Limited offers digital products and services in gaming, e-commerce, and fintech. According to App Annie, its gaming segment Garena created Free Fire, the world's most downloaded mobile game from 2019 to 2021. Shopee is Sea Limited's e-commerce marketplace, and Sea Money, its digital payments platform, integrates across the business.
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A dark spot in an otherwise bright quarter
Gaming, e-commerce, and fintech are all fast-growing industries, which has enabled Sea Limited to thrive. The company grew its revenue 106% year over year in Q4 2021 and 128% for the entire year. Sea Limited has averaged 119% annual revenue growth over the past three years, so it's continued its rapid growth.
However, management guided Garena for $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings for 2022. Bookings are essentially funds that have been purchased but not spent on the game platform, so they indicate the momentum of the gaming business. Garena's total 2021 bookings were $4.6 billion, so this is a massive decline that suggests the gaming business could be about to slow down dramatically.
Garena is Sea's "money maker." It contributes all of its profits. Its total 2021 non-GAAP EBITDA from Garena was $2.77 billion, while the rest of the company posted losses, bringing companywide 2021 EBITDA to minus $593 million. Garena's profits enable the company to invest in growth, like expanding into new markets. It's reasonable that a weakness in the gaming business could threaten Sea's path to bottom-line profitability (positive net income), as well as its ability to fund growth.
The stock has become attractive
It's not that investors should dismiss these risks; they need to be monitored by shareholders over the coming quarters. However, some context could be important.
Management attributes the anticipated slowdown to be caused by reopening, where gamers don't have as much time to spend playing Freefire now that work, school, and social gatherings are slowly going back to normal. Freefire is also currently banned in India due to Tencent's stake in Sea Limited. It makes sense that these things might impact Garena, and active users still grew 7% year-over-year in Q4. It's something to watch for sure, but I'm not sure it's an automatic reason to avoid the stock.
Meanwhile, Sea's stock is about as cheap from a price-to-sales ratio standpoint as at any point in its history as a public company. You can see below how the P/S ratio threatens to go below pre-COVID levels.
SE PS Ratio data by YCharts
Is the company dealing with some bumps in the road? Of course, however, I would argue that the valuation compensates investors for it, versus when the stock traded at a P/S ratio of more than 24 just a few months ago.
Flexibility and growth to drive long-term returns
If you look beyond Garena's potential slowdown, the company is still performing at a high level. Sea's fintech business guided 155% revenue growth in 2022, while Shopee expects 75% growth.
Southeast Asia is a hotbed for digital growth; Alphabet estimated that the digital economy in the region could double in value to $335 billion by 2025 and potentially reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.
Sea's growth outlook for Shopee and Sea Money shows how rapidly the business is growing; management recently launched new divisions such as Sea AI Lab for artificial intelligence applications and Sea Capital, a segment for strategic investments.
The company seems to have the ingredients to continue growing for years to come, even if the short-term include some hiccups along the way. Investors may need to have some patience, but the stock's increasingly attractive valuation could make it worth the wait.
