Investors had high expectations for Best Buy's (BBY -0.07%) holiday season earnings report. The retailer entered the period with solid momentum, even though it was going up against an unusually tough comparison to soaring sales results a year ago.
Best Buy's actual results reflected that difficult comparison, along with inventory and COVID-19-related challenges.
Let's dive right in.
A tough selling environment
Best Buy's sales landed at $16.4 billion, meeting the low end of the guidance range that CEO Corie Barry and her team issued back late November. Since that time, several big factors hurt the consumer electronics retailing niche, including the rise of the omicron variant, inflation, and supply chain shortages.
Image source: Getty Images.
These issues combined to push comparable-store sales down 2% for the quarter, or a bit worse than most investors had expected. "Q4 sales," Barry said, "were impacted by more constrained inventory... and the temporary reduction in store house in January" resulting from the pandemic. Still, comps were up 10% for the second straight year in 2021.
Reduced profitability
The retailer achieved roughly the same impressive 6% operating margin for the year as it did in 2020. However, there is mounting pressure on Best Buy's profitability right now. Gross profit margin declined by almost a full percentage point in Q4 as the company eased some of its services pricing.
Selling expenses grew too, mainly thanks to advertising and new spending on the digital sales platform. "We are deliberately investing in our future and furthering our competitive differentiation," Barry said, "which... impacted our Q4 profitability." Best Buy's operating income shrank to $803 million, or 4.9% of sales, compared with $1 billion, or 6.1% of sales, in late 2021.
Looking at 2022
Unfortunately, that investment strategy will combine with a few negative trends to pressure the business in 2022. Management forecast that sales will decline to between $49.3 billion and $50.8 billion, compared with the $51.8 billion that Best Buy just achieved.
The step backwards reflects the soaring sales volumes over the past two years and a lingering hangover from early 2021, when financial stimulus payments lifted consumer electronics sales.
Best Buy is predicting reduced demand this year, and perhaps in the next fiscal year, before sales again start setting all-time records in fiscal 2025. Combine that modest growth outlook with the prospects for rising spending, and shareholders might see at least a year of weaker earnings growth ahead.
Best Buy is still a strong business. The retailer demonstrated its popularity with consumer electronics and appliances shoppers over the past two years. Its multichannel selling platform and in-store product demonstrations differentiate it from online sellers who compete mainly on price.
That said, shareholders should brace for a year or two of relatively modest results from Best Buy. It is becoming clear that a small portion of the $9 billion it added to its annual selling footprint since the pandemic came from temporary things like government stimulus. It will take some time before the pressure from the loss of those factors wears off and allows the retailer to start setting impressive sales records again.
