Disney (DIS -0.58%) finally returned to its billion-dollar blockbuster form with the release of Avatar: The Way of Water at the end of 2022. The sequel to what remains the biggest-ever worldwide blockbuster grossed $1.7 billion globally through its first four weekends.

Disney has several more big releases scheduled in the upcoming year, many of them sequels to popular franchises. But drawing audiences to theaters isn't as easy as it used to be, and the entertainment giant's coming tentpole movies may not manage to hit that milestone.

But even if none of Disney's 2023 debuts reach the billion-dollar box office level, its movie studios could still give investors reasons to applaud.

Bringing back audiences

Ticket sales rose in 2022, but they were still well below pre-pandemic levels.

Global box office sales reached $26 billion last year, up 27%. Still, that number was about 35% lower than the average from 2017 through 2019.

Theaters say they're getting fewer releases than in pre-pandemic times, but it's also worth pointing out that even the big blockbusters aren't drawing the same level of attendance they did just a few years ago. Last year saw just three releases top $1 billion in ticket sales worldwide: Top Gun: Maverick; Jurassic World Dominion; and Avatar: The Way of Water. In 2019, nine releases made it to the 10-digit mark -- seven of them from Disney.

However, one thing has become a constant in the movie business: Franchises have drawing power. Every single one of the top 10 domestic releases of 2022 was based on an existing film franchise. And Disney owns a larger volume of popular intellectual properties than any other studio operator.

Here's how it plans to put those brands to work in 2023.

Disney has an appealing release slate for 2023

Disney's planned releases for 2023 include three Marvel films, a live-action remake of an animated favorite, and a new installment in the LucasFilm franchise.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe kicks off Phase 5 with the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. It'll continue with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 and The Marvels later in the year.

Captain Marvel was the only one of the three releases' predecessors to top $1 billion. And after the latest installments focused on Black Panther and Thor failed to match their predecessors' ticket sales, it'll be tough for any of this year's releases to do it. It's worth noting that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness likely enjoyed a bump from the title character's presence in 2021's Spider-Man: No Way Home, lifting its box office run above that of the first Doctor Strange film.

While all of these releases have the potential to gross $1 billion or more, they won't skate by on their titles alone. They'll need compelling storylines and action.

The live-action remake of The Little Mermaid also has the potential to draw in audiences over the summer. However, Disney's casting decision has generated controversy that could affect attendance, regardless of whether the controversy is warranted.

Indiana Jones will also return in 2023, 15 years after the last installment in the series. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed $790 million after its 2008 release, which tops $1 billion in 2023 dollars. While nostalgia and big CGI action scenes could drive attendance, there are no guarantees that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will outperform the previous installment in the series.

Disney has several other films slated for 2023, including a Pixar and Disney Animation release. Any of them could be a surprise hit, but without well-known franchises to assist them in drawing audiences, they're unlikely to reach $1 billion.

Despite the uncertainty, Disney's 2023 box office performance can still top its 2022 total, which came in at $4.9 billion thanks in part to Avatar. At the same time, it's possible Disney will end 2023 without a single billion-dollar blockbuster -- that wouldn't necessarily make any of its releases failures.

The benefits of direct-to-consumer

Every Disney film eventually makes it to Disney+, which generates revenue in the form of its subscribers' monthly fees.

Perhaps one of the best things Disney's new releases will do is encourage customers to keep their subscriptions to Disney+ through the summer, as each month will bring a new big release to the service. Media companies are all battling for subscribers, and many consumers have made a habit of switching among the various services for content. Disney's films are not only popular but very rewatchable, which could help it keep its churn rate well below the average for the streaming space.

Even if none of Disney's 2023 releases pushes past the billion-dollar mark, it could end up with the strongest set of new film titles on its streaming service. And with the media industry's growing focus on streaming profits, that stronger 2023 release slate (plus Avatar: The Way of Water, which will hit the service this year) could support excellent subscriber numbers for Disney+.