What happened
A well-regarded investor best known for going short is out with some bullish commentary on ContextLogic (WISH -2.06%), calling the e-commerce stock the "most asymmetrical opportunity" on his radar. Shares jumped higher as a result, trading up as much as 67.2% in the minutes after the comments were released.
So what
ContextLogic runs Wish.com, a site that attempts to match consumers to deals on products they have expressed an interest in. The site has been around for more than a decade and generated more than $2 billion in sales last year but has largely been an also-ran among e-commerce sites.
Citron Research, a Wall Street firm that is best known for going short but sometimes publishes long ideas as well, believes fortune is about to turn in ContextLogic's favor. Citron, which is run by Andrew Left, said Monday on Twitter that Super Bowl ads for Pinduoduo-owned Temu, a Wish.com competitor, could "reintroduce" the world to the model.
If it does, Citron sees ContextLogic as the best-positioned company to benefit. The firm notes that ContextLogic has strong management, including veterans of Alphabet, Amazon, and Alibaba Group Holding. The company also has $832 million in cash, no debt, and an untapped $280 million line of credit, giving it "multiple years of liquidity."
Now what
Investors should note there are a lot of "ifs" in this bull case. Most notably, Citron is hoping that the Temu ads have a real impact on consumer behavior and bring new business to Wish. This is still a relatively small player by e-commerce standards, worth just $650 million even after the Monday spike, and will likely be a volatile stock in the days and weeks to come.
Even if you buy into Citron's argument, it might be best to wait a few days for the dust to settle and see how the markets react. At best, this should be a speculative part of a diversified portfolio, but if Citron is correct, ContextLogic could be a solid moneymaker in the quarters to come.
