Some stocks pay you handsomely every quarter just for owning them. Other stocks don't offer that perk but have tremendous upside potential. But there aren't many stocks that fit squarely into both groups.

Medical Properties Trust (MPW -1.10%) (MPT) stands out as an exception. This dividend stock has an ultra-high yield of over 14% -- and Wall Street thinks it could soar by 56%.

A common root cause 

There's actually a common root cause for MPT's juicy dividend yield and the big difference between its current share price and the consensus price target. That common denominator is the stock's steep decline. MPT's share price has plunged more than 60% over the last 12 months.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) like MPT often offer high dividend yields. However, MPT's yield has historically been near the range of 4% to 8%. The yield reached double-digits as a result of the stock's major sell-off.

The huge upside potential for the stock isn't because Wall Street analysts have been raising their price targets. Most analysts have maintained relatively steady outlooks for MPT over the last year. Importantly, though, they've kept their price target near the same level despite MPT's significant decline in share price.

To be sure, there are varied opinions on Wall Street about MPT's near-term prospects. Of the 14 analysts surveyed by Refinitiv in April, six rate the stock as a buy or strong buy. Five analysts recommend holding the stock. One analyst has an underperform rating on MPT with another recommending that investors sell shares of the healthcare REIT.

Behind the decline

Why has MPT stock fallen so much? There are three primary reasons. 

One factor is that the interest rates have risen sharply since the beginning of last year. REITs are especially impacted by higher interest rates because they usually rely heavily on borrowing to finance the purchase of properties. 

A second even bigger issue for MPT is that several of its hospital operator tenants have faced financial challenges. Pipeline Health was reorganized under Chapter 11 bankruptcy laws. Prospect Medical hasn't been able to fully pay its rent this year.

The third reason behind MPT's decline is the impact of short-seller attacks. Last week, the healthcare REIT filed a lawsuit against short seller Viceroy Research. MPT said that Viceroy "has repeatedly published baseless allegations to drive down the company's stock price." 

Is Wall Street right?

If MPT stock can rise to anywhere close to Wall Street's price target over the next 12 months, the stock is a no-brainer buy. But is Wall Street right? There are two answers to this question, in my opinion.

First, I think that analysts are correct that MPT's share price should rise. The REIT has reported some good news in recent weeks with the sale of 11 Australian properties. MPT was able to fully recover all rent due from Pipeline despite the hospital operator going through bankruptcy. The sale of facilities in Connecticut that are operated by another beleaguered tenant, Prospect, is expected to close within a few months.

The overall financial prospects for hospital operators are improving. MPT CEO Ed Aldag said in the company's Q4 conference call, "We find the outlook for our tenants extremely encouraging on all fronts."

MPT issued a letter to shareholders last week in which Aldag made a strong case for the company (and the stock). He highlighted, among other things, MPT's great underwriting track record, its well-diversified portfolio, and its continued strong business performance in a challenging market. 

What's the second answer to the question about whether or not Wall Street is right about MPT's upside potential? It's a maybe. I'm not sure if the stock will climb 56% higher over the next 12 months. It's certainly possible. However, there are multiple factors that could prevent such an impressive rebound, including persistently high interest rates and the potential for an economic recession.

I predict that MPT stock will deliver a solid return over the next year, although maybe not as much as the consensus price target reflects. I also predict that its sky-high dividend yield will fall somewhat -- not because of dividend cuts but rather as a result of the stock's increase. MPT's dividend yield won't stay above 14% for too much longer, if I'm right.