Expectations weren't high for Walt Disney (DIS 0.01%), as its latest full-length animated feature film hit the silver screen over the weekend. Tinseltown watcher Variety was targeting only $35 million in domestic ticket sales for Pixar's Elemental, a soft showing by any measuring stick. Reality proved to be even less kind.
Elemental delivered just $29.6 million in stateside box office receipts over the weekend. It's the worst opening for Disney's iconic Pixar animation studio since the original Toy Story -- and that was when individual tickets cost less than half as much as they do now. Something isn't clicking with consumers for Disney's ink-and-paint releases, and the clock is ticking for Disney to figure it out.
Thankfully for investors, they won't have to wait long for a bullish catalyst. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will hit a multiplex near you by the end of next week. The fifth installment of the franchise featuring the adventure-seeking archaeologist Dr. Indiana Jones could be what Disney needs to get back on track in this telltale summer season -- but like any good Indy movie, viewers will have to remain at the edge of their seats to find out.
Raiders of the lost art
"No time to argue," Dr. Jones was famously told in the opening action sequence of Raiders of the Lost Ark. "Throw me the idol, I throw you the whip." And there's no time to argue here after another Disney animated feature falls flat with moviegoers. Disney needs to swap Indy's whip for an idle summer slate of theatrical releases.
The good news is that this will be the first Indiana Jones film in 15 years. It will also be the first under Disney's watch, as it acquired Lucasfilm for roughly $4 billion in 2012. Disney initially tackled the Star Wars franchise, but it was just a matter of time before it tapped the second-most prolific property in the Lucasfilm vault.
The bad news is that the initial media reviews have been mixed. Just 57% of the film critics tracked by Rotten Tomatoes are recommending the movie, far less than even the 76% approval rating for Elemental. However, you can be sure that a multigenerational wave of nostalgia will send plenty of fans to the local cinema to arrive at their own conclusions.
Image source: Getty Images.
Reviews aren't everything. Elemental's 76% score is actually better than most non-Disney animated flicks that fared better than the House of Mouse offerings last year. Elemental might even have legs, given its more-encouraging 92% audience approval rating, at least on Disney+ if it fizzles out as expected at movie theaters this summer.
There is still a lot of weight on Disney with Dial of Destiny, especially after it pushed out some of its more highly anticipated films earlier this month. The third Avatar movie that was supposed to hit multiplexes next year won't hit the silver screen until the 2025 holiday season. It's a notable bump, as Avatar: The Way of Water is the only Disney studio release to top $1 billion in worldwide ticket sales since having a record seven blockbusters hit that mark in 2019.
If Dial of Destiny misdials its destiny, it could be a long dry spell for Disney. There isn't any other title on the 2023 slate of premieres with legitimate potential to crack 10 figures at the box office. Turning to next summer, Captain America: Brave New World is the next film to possibly have a shot at hitting that mark.
The drought comes at a tricky time for the leading media stock. CEO Bob Iger has embarked on a campaign to realize $5.5 billion in annual cost savings, and more than half of that budget will come out of content and programming. With Disney's ecosystem at its best when it has a big hit at theaters that it can parlay into consumer products, theme park rides, and TV shows, it can't afford another disappointment at the multiplex.
