There's no question about it: Upstart (UPST 2.76%) has been one of the biggest winners on the stock market this year. Shares of the consumer artificial intelligence lending platform have jumped more than 400% as excitement over AI, signs of an economic recovery, a short squeeze, and a beaten-down share price coming into the year have all contributed to the blowout gains.
Upstart will face its next test when it reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 8, and the stock may swing wildly on the news, given its historical volatility, the soaring gains this year, and the high number of shares sold short by investors betting on a decline.
The company's own forecast calls for a sequential increase in revenue from the first quarter, but a sharp drop from Q2 2022, when interest rates were much lower and consumer demand for loans was stronger.
If you're looking for some insight into Upstart's second quarter ahead of the report, we just got some quarterly results from two of Upstart's closest peers, and Wall Street didn't like what it saw. Let's take a closer look.
Image source: Getty Images.
What the competition is saying
Two of Upstart's closest publicly traded peers posted second-quarter results this past week and sold off sharply on the news.
LendingClub (LC 1.00%), for example, may be Upstart's closest competitor among publicly traded companies. Shares of the peer-to-peer lending marketplace fell 21% on Thursday after the company beat analyst estimates but posted a sharp decline in loan originations and forecast another drop in the third quarter.
Loan originations, a key source of business for both LendingClub and Upstart, came in at $2 billion in the second quarter for LendingClub, down from $2.3 billion in the first quarter and $3.8 billion in Q2 2022. Even worse, the company expects originations to slow to just $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion in the third quarter.
Revenue in the quarter declined 30% to $232.5 million, and Chief Executive Officer Scott Sanborn said the company expects the headwinds in the marketplace to persist due to high interest rates and concerns about liquidity among its banking partners, who buy the company's loans.
Similarly, LendingTree (TREE 4.04%) sold off in its recent report, falling 25% after it cut its full-year revenue forecast.
LendingTree offers a platform that allows borrowers to search for, compare, and obtain loans, and it's facing similar headwinds to those affecting LendingClub.
In its letter to shareholders, management said, "Most of the end markets we serve remain depressed due to higher interest rates and the knock-on effects from persistently high inflation." It also said that its lending partners have tightened underwriting criteria and reduced marketing spending.
Overall revenue was down 30% to $182.5 million, and the company reported substantial declines in all three of its business segments: home, consumer, and insurance.
LendingTree's third-quarter projection also called for a sequential decline in revenue to between $155 million and $170 million.
What it means for Upstart
Upstart is sensitive to the same macro factors that have hurt LendingClub and LendingTree, but investors were encouraged when Upstart's second-quarter forecast called for a sequential gain in revenue to about $135 million, up from $103 million in the first quarter. That's a sign that Upstart could be rebounding faster than its peers
However, loan originations are likely to remain down substantially from where they were in 2022, as originations fell 78% in the first quarter year over year.
Investors should be careful of reading too much into peer earnings reports, as each management team makes different decisions and the companies have different cost structures, despite the similar macro pressures.
Upstart's business will likely face challenges through 2023, given the broader trends in the lending market and as interest rates remain elevated.
The path for the stock itself is more difficult to predict, as part of the reason for its surge is due to its connection to AI and a short squeeze, which are unrelated to its business performance.
Expect Upstart to remain volatile and trade as a leveraged play on the broader economic recovery. We'll learn more when its second-quarter earnings report comes out next week.
