Only one week ago, shares of Apple (AAPL 2.20%) were up more than 50% year to date. The giant tech stock was enjoying one of its best starts in a long time.
Then Apple announced its fiscal 2023 third-quarter results. Its shares sank over the next few days with no rebound yet in sight. Are the good times over for Apple stock?
Plenty of bad news
Apple reported revenue of $81.8 billion in fiscal Q3, down 1.4% from the prior-year period. This marked the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue declines.
Nearly all of Apple's most popular products experienced weakness. iPhone sales fell nearly 2.5% year over year to $39.7 billion. The picture was even worse for iPads and Macs, with sales declines of 19.8% and 7.3%, respectively.
Apple did manage to grow its earnings by around 2.2%. However, this modest increase was only possible because the company's provision for income taxes was well below the level in the year-ago period.
Investors shouldn't expect significant near-term improvement. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said in the quarterly conference call that revenue in fiscal Q4 should be similar to the level generated in Q3.
None of this is absolutely horrible news. However, Apple's shares continue to trade at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of over 27.5x. It's hard to justify such a lofty valuation based on the company's recent financial performance.
More to the story
Investors have cause to be disappointed in Apple's latest update. However, there is more to the story.
The brightest spot for Apple right now is its services business. Services revenue of $21.2 billion set an all-time record. Several categories performed especially well, including App Store and Apple Music.
Apple reported its highest number of customers switching to iPhones ever for a June quarter. Customer satisfaction remains at sky-high levels, with 451 Research recently finding 98% U.S. customer satisfaction for the iPhone 14 lineup.
The steep decline in iPad and Mac sales was largely due to a tough year-over-year comparison. Sales for both products surged in the prior-year period due to pent-up demand resulting from previous supply disruptions.
Apple's wearables revenue continues to grow. The company is also excited about next year's launch of its Vision Pro mixed-reality headset. Apple CEO Tim Cook said that it's "the most advanced personal electronics device ever created."
Importantly for investors, Apple continues to put its huge cash stockpile to good use. In fiscal Q3, the company paid $3.8 billion in dividends and bought back around $18 billion of its shares.
An easy answer
I think there's an easy answer to the question posed earlier: The good times are unequivocably not over for Apple stock. One disappointing quarterly update doesn't change the overall story for any company, especially one with such an impressive track record of success as Apple.
To be sure, Apple isn't firing on all cylinders as it has in the past. The company faces currency headwinds as well as a challenging macroeconomic environment. It's also more difficult to deliver impressive growth with a market cap of close to $3 trillion.
In my view, Apple's shares could be range-bound for a while. The lack of growth combined with the stock's valuation might not be overly attractive to many investors.
However, I suspect that the current pullback could also be an opportunity for long-term investors. Apple's ecosystem remains strong. The company will almost certainly introduce new products in the future that will provide major catalysts. People have written Apple off in the past only to regret it later. I think doing the same now would be a mistake.
