What happened
Shares of Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.76%) popped as much as 19% this week, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The upstart electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer got an upgrade from a Baird analyst, while its CEO was bullish at the Code business conference. As of the close on Friday, Rivian shares had risen 17.9% this week.
So what
Rivian Automotive is a premium electric vehicle manufacturer that is just getting its feet wet when it comes to producing vehicles. Last quarter, it produced around 14 thousand vehicles from its factories, up from 4.4 thousand a year prior and zero production levels in 2021. The company is not profitable but has a strong balance sheet due to its huge initial public offering (IPO) in late 2021. Last quarter, it had an operating loss of $2.7 billion.
The most important thing for Rivian is scaling up its production to spread out its huge fixed costs. Selling its cars for upwards of $100 thousand or more, Rivian vehicles have strong unit economics and plenty of demand from wealthy consumers. It just needs to get the cars out the door. Investment analysts at Baird see the company beating its third-quarter deliveries estimate, which is supposed to already grow significantly year over year. For the full year in 2023, the company is expecting to deliver 52 thousand vehicles to customers. Investors likely took this upgrade in a positive light and sent shares of Rivian higher this week.
On top of this bullish note, Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe was asked at the Code Conference this week about competition from Tesla's new Cybertruck. Rivian's first vehicles are trucks and SUVs, which the Cybertruck could heavily compete with. However, Scaringe was confident that the Cybertruck was not a competitor to Rivian's products given how unique the vehicle looks. He believes there is a huge market for electric trucks out there and that many companies will win. Time will tell when (or if) the Cybertruck -- which was announced in 2019 -- ever comes to market.
Now what
Investors likely don't need to worry about the Cybertruck when it comes to Rivian. What they need to be concerned about is cash burn and whether Rivian can grow quickly enough to start generating positive profitability. Over the last 12 months, the company has burned $6.8 billion as it has scaled up manufacturing. Growth has been great, with production up over 100% year over year. But this growth will need to continue for many years if Rivian is going to become a viable business. Next quarter's delivery number will be telling on what progress Rivian has made.
