What happened
It's Monday, and shares of electric vehicle stocks are on the move again -- in opposite directions.
As of 10:20 a.m. ET, shares of luxury EV maker Fisker (FSR +0.00%) are stomping the accelerator and racing 6.5% higher, while rival Canoo (GOEV +860.00%) is heading in the other direction -- down 6.5%. Meanwhile, VinFast Auto (VFS 0.73%) is winning the race to the bottom and rolling downhill 12.5%.
Money problems seem to be the issue affecting all three stocks.
NASDAQ: VFS
Key Data Points
So what
For context, let's begin with VinFast, the Vietnamese electric vehicle company that electrified the stock market with its IPO back in August. Racing from roughly $10 a share pre-IPO to more than eight times that amount two weeks later, VinFast has come down almost as fast as it went up, and it sells for just under $11 a share today. Part of the reason for this is that VinFast simply isn't very good at making money.
In its earnings report late last month, the company reported a more-than-fivefold increase in EV deliveries but only a 131% increase in revenue -- and a net loss of more than $500 million. The company's also burning cash at the terrifying rate of more than $2.9 billion annually, and according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, this rate of negative free cash flow is even worse than the company's reported net losses.
But VinFast is not the only EV company suffering in this regard.
Over the past 12 months, Fisker has burned through $627 million, and Canoo $358 million. To offset these cash losses, Fisker this morning announced it has issued $170 million worth of convertible notes (i.e., debt, convertible into common stock). And Canoo announced it is selling at least $45 million -- and perhaps as much as $150 million -- in convertible preferred stock (i.e., preferred stock that pays generous dividends, much as debt pays interest, and that is convertible into common stock).
Now what
Now the question naturally arises: If both Fisker and Canoo are basically raising debt in order to get access to the cash they need to offset the cash they're burning in their businesses, why are investors selling Canoo stock today, but buying Fisker stock?
And the answer, I think, is that Fisker buyers are making a mistake.
Consider that both these convertible offerings will cost their companies money. Fisker says that its notes pay "0%" interest -- but it issued the debt at a 12% discount to face value. In other words, it owes $170 million, but got only $150 million in cash for the debt. And Fisker plans to issue as much as $623.3 million more such debt on similar terms!
Canoo, meanwhile, will pay 7.5% dividends on its convertible offering, rising at least to 9% and potentially as high as 12% after the first five years.
Long story short, both these companies are strapped for cash and paying through the nose to get access to more money. VinFast is in similar straits, with less than 18 months' worth of cash on hand at its present burn rate. All three of these EV stocks, therefore, look like they're in serious trouble right now.
I wouldn't touch any of them.
