Shares of Moderna (MRNA 1.69%) were down 16.2% for the week as of the market close on Thursday, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. That decline was in part connected to broad market choppiness that was driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. However, the bigger factor pushing Moderna in particular lower was that investors are worried about the outlook for its COVID-19 vaccine sales.
Why investors are concerned about Moderna's COVID sales
Investors' concerns are understandable. After the market closed on Friday, Oct. 13, Pfizer (PFE 0.55%) lowered its full-year 2023 guidance. The reduced outlook was solely due to weaker sales expectations for COVID products Comirnaty and Paxlovid.
Moderna, though, sought to reassure investors. On Monday, the company released a statement about its anticipated 2023 COVID sales. Management said that it "remains comfortable" with its previous guidance for sales between $6 billion and $8 billion for 2023.
That's a relatively wide range. Moderna thinks that it's too early to be more precise because it doesn't know what U.S. vaccination rates will be in the coming months. But with Pfizer now more pessimistic, investors appear to be bracing for Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine sales to be near the low end of its forecast range.
Is Moderna stock a buy?
Warren Buffett's practice is to not buy a stock when he can't reasonably predict the company's earnings over the next five years. So it's not surprising that Berkshire Hathaway doesn't have Moderna in its stock portfolio. There's a lot of uncertainty about what the future holds for COVID-19 vaccine sales. Because of this uncertainty, I think that most investors would be better off staying away from Moderna right now.
However, the company's pipeline features several promising vaccines and therapies in late-stage development. Aggressive investors with long-term mindsets could find Moderna an attractive biotech stock to buy on the pullback.
