Disney's (DIS -0.58%) theme parks may feel magical, but the stock price doesn't these days. The shares have lost about 8% so far this year, on top of a 43% decline last year. Disney's efforts to conquer the streaming market resulted in ballooning costs in recent years, weighing on the entire earnings picture.
Investors haven't been happy about that -- and even action taken by chief executive officer Bob Iger to put the company back on the path to growth hasn't spurred optimism in the investment community. The longtime CEO retired right before the pandemic but returned late last year to launch a recovery plan. So, as we approach Halloween -- a holiday Disney parks love to celebrate -- it's fair to ask: Is this popular stock a trick or a treat?
Source: Disney.
Streaming service losses
Let's talk about the negative points first. Though Disney's streaming subscriptions have grown in leaps and bounds, this unit -- called direct-to-consumer -- saw its annual operating loss widen to more than $4 billion last year from about $1.6 billion in the previous year.
At the same time, the entertainment company is facing challenges in other business areas. For example, certain recent films -- like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Haunted Mansion -- were flops. And speaking of the box office, it's become a difficult place to succeed as more and more people opt to wait and watch movies from the comfort of their own homes.
Finally, Disney's TV networks aren't looking at a particularly bright future as people end cable subscriptions in favor of streaming services. In fact, Iger says he wouldn't exclude the idea of selling some of these assets -- as for ESPN, he's leaning toward finding a strategic partner and eventually shifting the sports network to streaming.
All of this has held back Disney's growth and hurt investor sentiment. Now, let's consider some positive elements.
Year after year, Disney tops the list of the world's most-visited theme parks. And this business has remained strong, even through difficult economic times. For example, in the recent quarter, Walt Disney World in Florida posted revenue and operating income that were 21% and 29% higher, respectively, than in the same quarter of 2019.
The company also is seeing growth in its cruise operations, with fourth-quarter bookings for its fleet at 98%.
Disney's $60 billion investment
In fact, Disney expects the parks, experiences, and products business will continue to drive growth -- and it's making an investment to ensure that happens. Disney said it's pouring $60 billion into that business over the next ten years, which is almost double the amount it invested over the past decade. The company has plenty of acreage to expand current parks, says there still are plenty of new fans to attract to the parks, and aims to nearly double its fleet of cruise ships.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Iger is working to find solutions for Disney's TV networks, he's cut spending at direct-to-consumer to balance the idea of growth with profitability, and he says the company is on track to beat his overall cost savings goal of $5.5 billion. As for films, Iger aims to focus on quality over quantity in order to boost Disney's chances of luring people away from their couches and into theaters to see new releases.
Iger's efforts are starting to bear fruit. As mentioned above, the company is making solid progress toward the cost cutting goal. And in the most recent quarter, the direct-to-consumer operating loss narrowed to $500 million from more than $1 billion in the year-earlier period. So a lot is happening at Disney.
Why are Disney shares falling?
Why isn't this translating into share performance? All of Iger's initiatives are ones that take time to deliver big results, and investors may not want to jump in when they see just a bit of progress. All of that means it may take some time for Disney shares to take off.
That doesn't mean you should wait to buy the stock, though, because it's impossible to time the market and get in at the very lowest point. So, it's best to buy when the price seems reasonable, like today, with shares trading at 23 times forward earnings estimates.
Now, let's get back to our question: Is buying Disney stock a trick or a treat for investors? It may feel like a trick right now. But taking a look through a long-term lens offers another view.
Considering Disney's brand strength, the performance of its parks and increased investment in that winning business, and Iger's determination to find solutions for problem areas like TV networks, this company looks a lot less like a trick. Instead, Disney could offer investors the treat of performance over the long term.
