Shares of Zebra Technologies (ZBRA 1.60%) fell 11.5% in October, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The maker of barcode scanning tools and information management systems ended last month with a solid earnings report, but the stock price damage was done earlier.
Quarterly results: Zebra's financial health check
The earnings report wasn't a market-moving event this time, but a quick review of it will set the stage regarding Zebra's business environment at large.
In the third quarter, revenues fell 31% year over year to $956 million. Adjusted earnings dropped 79% to $0.87 per diluted share.
It should be noted that these results were slightly above the midpoint of management's guidance ranges for the quarter. In other words, the lower numbers didn't surprise anybody. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the forecast downtrend continues with another year-over-year revenue drop of approximately 34% and dramatically lower earnings.
The tide should turn after that, as Zebra's cost-cutting efforts will be complete by the end of the year and lead to lower operating costs going forward. The company is waiting for broad-based turnarounds in the retail and transportation markets.
That being said, Zebra's biggest single-day drop in October came after analyst firm BNP Paribas initiated coverage of the stock with an underperform rating and a price target 21% below its share price at the time. Comments made by that firm's analysts on Zebra's earnings call this week suggest that they are worried about a slow recovery from the currently overstocked status of Zebra's product distribution pipeline.
Zebra's path forward
Zebra is positioned to clear out its overstuffed distribution system in short order.
"E-commerce providers and transportation logistics built out significant network capacity across everything they did, their networks, their capacity around logistics and others, to be able to meet the demands during COVID, which now have kind of reset to pre-COVID levels and are going to grow from there," said CEO Bill Burns on the third-quarter earnings call.
In other words, the shipping and distribution systems of Zebra's most important e-commerce customers are starting to look normal again. When the global economy gets back on its feet again, the retail sector looks ready to spring back into profitable action -- and will require more of Zebra's product-tagging supplies and supporting systems in order to keep up with the restarted business flow.
All of that is forward-looking speculation right now, but I can't wait to see that story play out someday soon. Everyone hopes for normalcy ahead of the fast-approaching holiday shopping season, but a 2024 recovery will do in a pinch. While Zebra's current stride might be more of a saunter than a gallop across the American savanna, investors with an eye for resilient rebounds might see this as a moment to saddle up before the next race begins.
