Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -0.76%) (BRK.B -0.69%), owns lots of stocks. Two of its biggest holdings are oil stocks: Chevron (CVX 0.37%) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY -0.15%). They currently rank as Berkshire's fifth- and sixth-largest holdings. Together, they represent over 10% of its publicly traded stock portfolio.
Investors should consider scooping up that oil stock duo this month. Here's why they have the fuel to potentially produce strong total returns in 2024.
Catalysts for crude
Oil prices have meandered along this year. WTI, the primary U.S. oil price benchmark, currently trades around $75 per barrel. While WTI has been as high as $95 per barrel (and sank below $65 a barrel at one point), it has spent most of the year in the $75-to-$80 per barrel range. Meanwhile, Brent oil (the global benchmark) has been around that same range.
Most oil market watchers expect crude to be higher next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook forecasts Brent oil to average $93 a barrel next year. That's the same price point pegged by Barclays. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs sees oil trading between $70 and $100 a barrel next year, with clear catalysts to push crude to the upper end of that range.
OPEC is one of those catalysts. The group of oil-producing nations is currently debating whether to extend their production cuts into 2024. The group, plus some nonmembers (known collectively as OPEC+), reportedly plans to extend their current 1.3 million-barrel-per-day (BPD) cuts through March and could ultimately cut its output by 2.2 million BPD.
The market is skeptical that OPEC+ will deliver the expected cuts for next year. However, if OPEC limits supply, oil prices could trend toward the triple digits.
Meanwhile, there's always the potential for an oil supply shock. We got one in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, sending the price of crude into the triple digits. There's a real risk for another one in 2024 if the Israel-Hamas war boils over into a larger conflict in the Middle East. Credit rating agency Fitch sees the potential for a higher oil price scenario where crude averages $120 a barrel next year in the event of a supply shock.
Crude is one of many catalysts for these Buffett stocks
Higher oil prices would enable Chevron and Occidental Petroleum to produce more earnings and cash flow in 2024. That alone would likely drive their share prices higher, following their slides in 2023:
It would also give them more cash to buy back more of their beaten-down shares. Chevron currently plans to repurchase $20 billion in stock next year, the top end of its $10 billion-$20 billion range. Occidental would also be able to repurchase more shares if oil prices were higher next year. That would likely trigger additional preferred stock repurchases from Buffett's company, enabling it to eliminate more of the high-cost funding it used to buy Anadarko in 2019.
However, oil isn't their only upside catalyst. Chevron is currently working to close its needle-moving deal for Hess. That transaction would significantly enhance its free cash flow and growth profile.
It's driving Chevron's view that it will be able to increase its dividend by 8% next year and boost its share repurchase rate by $2.5 billion per year to $20 billion annually. That's assuming $70 oil. If oil prices are higher, Chevron will generate more cash that it can allocate toward creating additional value for investors next year.
Meanwhile, Occidental is eyeing a needle-moving deal of its own. It has reportedly emerged as the leading bidder for CrownRock. An acquisition would significantly enhance the company's already meaningful position in the low-cost Permian Basin. A deal could also help it generate more cash next year, especially if oil prices increase.
In addition, both companies are working to advance their lower-carbon energy strategies. Occidental continues to move ahead with its direct-air capture (DAC) strategy, including securing commercial and financial partners for its first facility, which it expects to complete in 2025. Chevron is working on a range of lower-carbon opportunities, including carbon capture and biofuels. As investors start seeing more clarity on the future earnings from these new ventures, it could help boost their valuations.
2024 could be a strong year for these Buffett-backed oil stocks
Catalysts abound for Chevron and Occidental. Several factors could push oil prices higher, enabling them to generate more cash flow. Meanwhile, both oil companies could complete a needle-moving deal, enhancing their ability to cash in on higher crude prices. Finally, they continue to advance their lower-carbon energy strategies, which could become more evident growth drivers over the next year.
These factors make Chevron and Occidental compelling Buffett stocks to buy this month.
