By being a leader in the world of technology and owning some of the most popular internet services out there, Alphabet (GOOG 0.58%) (GOOGL 0.42%) is one of the most successful enterprises of all time.
And investors have been rewarded, to say the least. Shares have soared fivefold in the last decade, a tremendous gain that trounces that of the Nasdaq Composite Index.
We have our sights set on the future, though. As this year comes to a close, is it a realistic scenario for Alphabet shares to rise 48% from today's price to reach $200 by the end of 2024? Let's see what needs to happen.
Alphabet's improving fundamentals
Macroeconomic headwinds resulted in much slower revenue growth for this business throughout 2022. With worries about a recession on everyone's mind, advertising spending took a hit.
But the situation has been steadily improving. In each of the last three quarters, Alphabet has seen its sales gains pick up. During the most recent three-month period (third quarter of 2023 ended Sept. 30), revenue increased 11% year over year to $76.7 billion.
Help is coming from a rebounding digital ad market. In fact, key players in the industry, like Meta Platforms and Amazon, have also experienced strong advertising revenue growth recently.
For this momentum to continue, the economic backdrop needs to improve. With inflation pressures subsiding, the Federal Reserve could decide to start cutting interest rates sometime in 2024. And this would likely be a boon for economic activity, leading to greater revenue potential for Alphabet.
The business will also need to find ways of boosting its profitability. Like many tech companies, Alphabet completed massive layoffs to eliminate the bloat that was created during the pandemic boom. This looks like a more efficient enterprise. In fact, the company's Q3 operating margin of 28% was higher than the 25% posted in the year-ago period.
Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer of Alphabet, talked on the latest earnings call about how the focus is to find ways to grow revenue at a faster pace than expenses. There's no doubt that shareholders would love to keep seeing progress on this front.
NASDAQ: GOOGL
Key Data Points
Setting expectations
To be clear, I don't think a $200 price target is completely out of the realm of possibility. For what it's worth, Alphabet is one of the most dominant companies the world has ever seen. It benefits from the rise of the internet. It has tremendous financials. And it's poised to be a leader in the world of artificial intelligence.
So, expecting that Alphabet will post strong fundamental results isn't hard to believe. We're already seeing clear signs of this happening.
But let's look at what $200 per share implies. As I mentioned earlier, this price target means the stock will need to rise 48% over the next 12 months. Since the company's initial public offering in 2004, Alphabet shares have climbed by 48% or more in six of those years, including this year. But it's rare to have two stellar gains like this in back-to-back years.
Moreover, $200 per share would crush the stock's all-time high of $150, which was set in November 2021. And at this price, the company's entire market cap would be roughly $2.5 trillion. This seems unlikely in the next 12 months, even if the current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.5 looks compelling.
I'm not optimistic that this outcome will happen by the end of 2024. However, I am bullish on Alphabet's stock over the long term. And that's enough of a reason to scoop up shares right now.
