Investors often dream about finding the next game-changing company. Of course, finding a game-changing company set to revolutionize an industry is far easier said than done. Remember back when Tesla changed the game by essentially introducing a sports car that was battery electric powered? And Tesla did so at a time ditching fossil fuels seemed daunting -- and that's putting it lightly. Those high-flying and wild days might be behind Tesla, although its story has plenty of room to run yet, but one company might be about to enter game-changing territory.
"If QuantumScape can get this technology into mass production, it holds the potential to transform the industry," said Stan Whittingham, co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery and winner of the 2019 Nobel Prize in chemistry, in a QuantumScape press release.
QuantumScape's (QS 5.69%) battery technology could be groundbreaking. At a time when electric vehicles (EVs) are positioning themselves for mass adoption, the company could be a lucrative long-term investment. Move over Tesla; QuantumScape could be the next stock to make investors rich.
QuantumScape who?
Starting with some basic background on a company you may not have heard of, QuantumScape has over 12 years of research and development investment in its battery technologies. It employs a world-class battery development team comprising over 800 employees and owns over 300 patents and patent applications.
QuantumScape has also caught the eye of major global automakers during its journey. It has contracts with six automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including Volkswagen, a key partner and investor, and two other top 10 OEMs, two established global luxury OEMs, and a pure-play EV company.
Encouraging results
To simplify a somewhat complicated story, QuantumScape's battery technology improves the process by simplifying the cell design. It eliminates the need for graphite, silicon, or lithium foil, enabling the battery to increase energy density and improve range while boasting 15-minute fast charging.
More specifically, QuantumScape's batteries could recharge from zero to 80% of capacity in about half the time most lithium-ion EV batteries require. An EV using QuantumScape's batteries could extend its range by roughly 80% with similar weight. Essentially, the potential groundbreaking battery technology could improve on nearly every aspect of the status quo.
At the end of 2022, QuantumScape shipped its first A0 prototype cells to potential customers for a proof-of-concept. Its top-performing AO prototype cell in one potential customer's battery testing labs achieved over 1,000 full-cycle equivalents with over 95% discharge energy retention. While management reiterated this was a cherry-picked high-end result and that there's much work to do regarding reliability, it's an extraordinary result and well above its commercial target of 800 cycles and 80% energy retention.
High upside
Huge, obvious risks come with investing in a preproduction company. The blunt truth is that no company has done what QuantumScape is trying to achieve, and the company, despite its recent encouraging test results, could ultimately fail to produce its technology entirely or as reliably as required to transform the industry.
However, QuantumScape has spent much of 2023 attempting to move from prototype to product, and the company has a cash runway that extends into 2026, with the ability to potentially raise more funds if necessary.
If QuantumScape does accomplish its targets and reaches production with a next-generation EV battery, its opportunity is massive. Consider that battery electric vehicles (BEV) only recently hit about 10% of the global light-vehicle market, and management believes the opportunity could potentially be hundreds of billions of dollars annually for decades.
Time to buy?
For all of its massive upside, there are the aforementioned risks investors take when investing in a preproduction company. QuantumScape is still a few years away from mass-producing its batteries, and the process of going from a successful prototype to a mass-production battery has been slow -- a speed Wall Street isn't fond of.
QuantumScape isn't an investment for everyone; it's not for the risk-averse or faint of heart. But a small position in QuantumScape has incredible upside after shedding nearly 70% of its value since its initial public offering. If the company gets to mass production and carves out its slice of a massive target-market pie, it could easily drive not only global electric vehicles but also your entire portfolio.
