There's nothing special about Burlington Stores' (BURL 4.04%) business model. It sells cheap stuff to people who like to hunt for bargains. However, 2023 did come with an important shift in the business that is good for today, but could also be a long-term benefit if the company plays the trend well. Here's what you need to know.
What does Dollar General have to do with it?
This is an article about Burlington, but there's a broader trend at play in the discount retail space. For example, during Dollar General's (DG 7.64%) third-quarter earnings conference call, management made a point of highlighting that traffic in its stores has been increasing of late. This company mostly sells basics, so it suggests that consumers are worried about the economic outlook and are trying to stretch their dollars. Some of the new customers are likely trading down from retailers with higher price points. Other discount retailers have seen the same trend.
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And that is, basically, the same story that Burlington reported when it discussed its third-quarter 2023 earnings. Indeed, coming into 2023, Burlington was expecting weak economic growth to bring more customers into its stores. That may not have materialized to the extent hoped for, but it did begin to happen.
And given the comments from others in the discount space, including Dollar General, there's a good reason to believe that 2024 could see more trade-down activity, as Burlington hopes.
But this isn't all good. Over the near term, discounters bringing in more people is clearly a wonderful event. However, when economic conditions improve, there's a real risk that consumers who trade down decide to trade back up to full-price stores. Those new, wealthier customers simply have more options than the less affluent core consumers who need to shop at discount stores because of the bargains they offer.
Burlington adjusts to its new customers
The interesting thing with Burlington is that, according to management, the company has been selling more items from recognizable brands that sell at higher price points. Translating that a little bit, the company's buyers brought in the type of products that wealthier customers might want to buy and those customers did, indeed, buy them.
NYSE: BURL
Key Data Points
So what? Dollar General and other discount retailers may not have the same kind of flexibility with regard to the products they sell that Burlington does. Economic uncertainty would bring in new customers for such stores, but when the fears subside those customers are likely to go right back to their old spending habits.
However, if Burlington can adjust its product lineup so that trade-down customers see that they can find the same brands they want to buy for less, well, the retailer may have a chance to keep those customers coming back for more.
To be fair, when economic concerns subside, trade-down traffic will probably dwindle at Burlington, too. But that doesn't mean this off-price retailer won't end up keeping some of the traffic if it manages to win over consumers with the right product mix. Location will also be important, with the company specifically looking to open 100 new locations a year over the next five years, focusing on busy strip malls. The company is also focusing on relocating older, less productive stores to better locations.
Thus, the complementary story to the trade-down trend is increasingly better products and better locations. It isn't unrealistic to believe that Burlington, given its product flexibility, holds on to trade-down customers better than retailers that really only focus on cheap wares for a lower socioeconomic customer base.
Look at 2024, but think beyond that
All in, 2024 is likely to be buoyed by trade-down customers at Burlington and other discount retailers. This is good news and suggests that the year could be a positive one on the earnings front for the entire sector.
But the real question to ask here is whether or not Burlington, and the others benefiting from trade-down traffic, can turn this from a short-term boost into a long-term benefit. The success Burlington has had in bringing in better brands and selling them at higher price points hints that it might be able to do just that.
