The pandemic has receded substantially, and with it, the need for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19. That's not to say we no longer need them -- just a lot less so than we did in the earlier years of the outbreak.
Biotech giant Moderna (MRNA 1.69%) rose to prominence and made a lot of money thanks to its marketing of one of the leading COVID-19 vaccines, but last year, the company's shares dropped like a rock along with its revenue and earnings. Still, there is a lot to like about Moderna's business.
Let's consider why it might still be worth buying and holding the company's shares for the next decade.
On the verge of new approvals
Here is the extent to which Moderna's financial results worsened in 2023 compared to the prior year: For the nine months through Sept. 30, the biotech reported a total revenue of about $4 billion, whereas it racked up $14.2 billion in total sales in the parallel period of 2022. On the bottom line, Moderna turned net earnings per share of $16.46 in the first nine months of 2022 into a net loss per share of $12.89.
However, it's important to remember that these comparisons are unfair to Moderna. We are no longer in an extreme health emergency, so it's not surprising to see sales associated with a once-in-a-lifetime catastrophe plummet. That said, COVID-19 is here to stay, and Moderna will continue generating sales from its vaccines. Further, the company is inching closer to a new approval.
Last year, it reported positive results from a phase 3 clinical trial for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), mRNA-1345. Moderna submitted regulatory applications for mRNA-1345 in 2023 and currently expects to launch this product this year. The company will be joining a relatively new market. The first RSV vaccines were approved last year, with three companies leading the charge: Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, and Sanofi.
Still, Moderna's new product, if it does earn approval, can only positively affect its financial results. Some analysts see the RSV vaccine hitting $9 billion by 2029, with Moderna's mRNA-1345 generating $2.4 billion of that total by itself.
More promising candidates
Moderna's late-stage pipeline features several other promising products. For instance, the company is developing a flu vaccine and another that could help prevent both COVID and the flu.
Perhaps the two most promising candidates it is working on are mRNA-1647 and mRNA-4157. The former is a potential vaccine against the cytomegalovirus, which can sometimes cause problems, especially in pregnant women.
There is currently no approved CMV vaccine, with Moderna being one of the companies looking to develop an effective one. The research company Evaluate Pharma sees mRNA-1647 as one of the most promising R&D projects in the industry, with estimated 2028 sales of $1.5 billion.
Then there is mRNA-4157, a potential personalized cancer vaccine. This product delivered encouraging results in a phase 2 clinical trial when paired with Merck's famous cancer drug, Keytruda. The two partners started a late-stage study for it, and if mRNA-4157 proves effective, it could be another blockbuster added to Moderna's arsenal.
Further, the company has many more programs in phase 2 studies. Moderna has a full pipeline, which it pushed forward in recent years partly thanks to its coronavirus-related success and the money it helped it generate.
In my view, here's what we should expect from the company in the next five years. Moderna should launch at least two non-COVID products on the market and make solid clinical progress elsewhere, while sales of its coronavirus portfolio will stabilize and become more predictable. The biotech company also expects to get back to top-line growth in 2025 and to break even on the bottom line by 2026.
Moderna's performance on the market last year shouldn't scare off investors. The company has the tools to turn things around and deliver much better returns in the next decade.
