Video game publisher Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO 0.72%) is going through an interesting time in its business. The company acquired mobile gaming developer Zynga in 2022, helping it expand its presence in the mobile games market.
On top of that, after wrapping up its 2023 fiscal year, which ended last March 31, Take-Two's CEO, Strauss Zelnick, made a bold prediction, stating: "We believe that we will enter our next phase of growth in Fiscal 2025, as we plan to deliver several groundbreaking titles that we anticipate will set new standards of quality and success."
Take-Two's fiscal 2025 kicks off in April of this year. With the company touting big growth in its upcoming fiscal year, is now the time to buy shares of this gaming giant?
In Take-Two's case, that decision is not straightforward. So let's examine the company in more detail to help determine if it's a worthwhile investment over the long run.
What to expect from Take-Two's impending growth
Take-Two's daring declaration of a "next phase of growth" came with scant details, but did specify that its fiscal 2025 net bookings are predicted to surpass $8 billion. Net bookings are a form of adjusted revenue, which Take-Two defines as the net amount of products and services sold during a given period.
For the current 2024 fiscal year, the company forecasts net bookings to come in at around $5.5 billion, up from fiscal 2023's $5.3 billion. So Take-Two's $8 billion prediction for fiscal 2025 is a significant revenue jump.
A key component of the company hitting this goal could be the release of its Grand Theft Auto VI game, which Take-Two announced would launch next year. The last entry in this franchise, Grand Theft Auto V, is among the top three best-selling video games of all time, and delivered a whopping 69% of Take-Two's revenue after it debuted in 2013.
Even a decade later, the Grand Theft Auto franchise accounted for over 14% of Take-Two's revenue through the first half of the 2024 fiscal year. That's thanks in part to an online multiplayer version requiring a subscription to play, which provides Take-Two with recurring revenue.
Zelnick indicated "several" games will play a part in Take-Two's net bookings growth. One could be among its popular Borderlands franchise, since a movie based on the series will debut this summer. At minimum, the film could renew interest in the Borderlands games.
Other factors to consider with a Take-Two investment
The Zynga acquisition is another alluring aspect of investing in Take-Two stock. The company's share of revenue coming from mobile gaming was 12% in its 2022 fiscal year, but after it acquired Zynga, that share rocketed to 48% in fiscal 2023.
Thanks to Zynga, Take-Two now has a substantial presence in the mobile gaming market. This market is forecast to reach $98.7 billion this year, up nearly $10 billion from 2023, and growing to $118.9 billion by 2027.
But while Take-Two's Zynga acquisition expanded the company's mobile gaming income, it hasn't helped profitability. For the first half of fiscal 2024, Take-Two suffered a net loss of $749.6 million, which was more than double the prior year's net loss of $361 million.
The company was consistently profitable before costs related to the 2022 Zynga acquisition contributed to Take-Two's net losses.
Data by YCharts.
If Take-Two can achieve net bookings of $8 billion in its next fiscal year, that revenue bump can help the company return to profitability.
Deciding on Take-Two shares
Zelnick's bold prediction of impending outsized revenue growth appears to be reflected in the stock price already. Take-Two shares were at a 52-week low of $101.77 last January before rising throughout 2023 to reach a high of $164.85 in December.
Given that the stock price currently remains near this 52-week high, buying Take-Two shares at this time harbors some risk. However, the average price target for Take-Two stock among Wall Street analysts is currently $170, and the consensus is an overweight stock rating. So the share price could go higher.
Even if Grand Theft Auto VI launches late, kicking its sales into the company's fiscal 2026, Take-Two is still well-positioned to grow revenue over the long run.
Grand Theft Auto VI is hotly anticipated, with some experts predicting it could generate over $1 billion in sales within the first 24 hours of its release. Take-Two's mobile gaming revenue benefits from the tailwind of industry growth. The company is poised to return to profitability if it achieves its forecast net bookings growth. All these factors make Take-Two shares a buy.
Since the share price is already elevated in anticipation of fiscal 2025's sales growth, a good strategy is to use the technique of dollar-cost averaging to buy when the stock price dips, then continue to add to your holdings when subsequent price drops occur in the future. This approach takes some of the risk out of paying too much for shares, while giving you exposure to the stock should Take-Two's fiscal 2025 exceed expectations.
