Shares of communications technology company Zoom Video Communications (ZM -0.41%) fell 10.2% in January, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. There was little news to speak of during the month. However, CFO Kelly Steckelberg spoke at the 26th annual Needham Growth Conference on Jan. 11. And the talk did little to inspire investors.
Growth could remain elusive for Zoom
I believe it's important to frame this by pointing out Zoom's resilience. Few businesses have ever grown as fast as Zoom did during the pandemic. The company has retained all of this business, with trailing-12-month revenue still at an all-time high. That's impressive. But investors want to see ongoing profitable growth, which is currently lacking.
Steckelberg highlighted tons of things that Zoom is working on. However, it's possible that investors foresee ongoing tepid financial results after listening to the talk.
For example, Steckelberg brought up that Zoom signs contracts that are in the neighborhood of three years in length on average. Throughout 2023 and to start 2024, businesses have been laying off workers. Since some of Zoom's services are per seat, it's possible that its customers will be paying for fewer seats whenever they renew their contracts.
For another example of something weighing on investors' minds, Zoom is working on some promising artificial intelligence (AI) features. But these AI features may come at the expense of its gross profit margin, at least while it's working to develop these tools. Steckelberg refrained from giving specific guidance but the hint was that its gross margin would take a step back, even if it's just a small step.
Growth was on Wall Street's mind in January as well. On Jan. 18, BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski downgraded his outlook for Zoom stock, according to MarketWatch. Slowinski reportedly said that his research casts doubt on "Zoom's ability to deliver on the enterprise growth acceleration the market expects in 2024."
In other words, after doing some digging, Slowinski doesn't think Zoom's growth is about to pick back up. And that's similar to what investors might have felt after listening to Steckelberg's talk. This is why Zoom stock was down 10% in January.
What should investors do now?
Zoom stock is a tough one. As already pointed out, the business is resilient. Moreover, the company is financially as strong as they come. It's generated over $1.1 billion in free cash flow through the first three quarters of its fiscal 2024. And it has over $6.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
To top it off, Zoom stock trades at a reasonable valuation of about 4 times its trailing sales.
However, I fear that management's commentary does point to ongoing headwinds for top-line growth in the coming year for Zoom. Therefore, it's possible this stock remains stuck in neutral for a while longer, which doesn't make it a buying opportunity, in my opinion.