Coca-Cola (KO) has a brand-new outlook, and investors should be pleased. The beverage titan recently closed out its fiscal 2023 year and told its shareholders what they can expect for 2024. The update contained some yellow flags worth watching over the next few quarters but was mainly packed with good news on growth and profitability. Let's dive right in.
Sparkling sales trends
Coke reported a 12% organic sales increase for Q4 and for the full 2023 year. That's a much better result than investors saw from peer PepsiCo (PEP -0.62%). The beverage and snack foods giant posted 10% higher sales for the year across its portfolio, alongside a 7% boost in the beverage division.
Looking behind that headline figure reveals even more strength from the Coke family of brands. Volume rose 2% even as prices increased at a nearly 10% rate. Pepsi couldn't manage the same level of pricing power; its volume declined 5% this past year. It's great news for future growth that Coke could achieve a balance between price and sales volume gains.
The new outlook
This momentum feeds right into Coke's brighter outlook for the year ahead. Pepsi warned investors in early February to expect slower growth over the coming quarters due to weaker category demand and decelerating inflation. Coke, on the other hand, sees room for optimism. "We're confident that our all-weather strategy ... will continue to create value for our stakeholders in 2024 and for the long term," CEO James Quincey said in a press release.
Management put some hard numbers behind those positive comments. Coke is projecting organic sales growth of between 6% and 7% (compared to Pepsi's 4%) for 2024. The company is also expecting earnings gains to outpace revenue growth, likely keeping Coke's profit margin close to its current impressive rate of nearly 30% of sales.
A worthwhile premium for investors to pay
As you might expect, investors are being asked to pay a premium for all this financial and operating strength. Coke was one of the worst-performing stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average last year, but the shares still sport a high valuation. You'll pay 5.7 times sales for the industry leader compared to PepsiCo's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.5. The valuation gap isn't as pronounced with respect to earnings, but Coke is still the more expensive stock of the two.
Even so, investors might consider paying the premium. Coke's profit margin is double that of PepsiCo, the company is growing more quickly, and it has a brighter outlook ahead for organic sales trends. Toss in its 3% dividend yield, which provides immediate passive income, and you've got many key ingredients needed to accrue market-thumping shareholder returns.
Sure, you can find faster growth outside of Coke's consumer staples industry. And Wall Street is worried about slowing demand for traditional sugary sodas. Yet, Coke is diversifying away from these products and into high-growth niches like energy drinks and sparkling water. Additional expected wins here help explain why Coke is so bullish on 2024 and on its long-term outlook.
It's always possible that sales trends will disappoint investors over the next few quarters or that another market downturn will make Coca-Cola's shares even cheaper. The beverage titan's growth won't seem as exciting at times when compared to sectors like technology. But investors -- especially fans of dividends -- should still consider keeping this stock near the top of their watch lists.
