Despite its dominant position atop the global sportswear market, it feels like Nike (NKE 2.63%) has been flying under the radar in recent times. It's not a tech-enabled enterprise developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence capabilities, which is probably why it's not getting a lot of attention.
But the leading athletic apparel and footwear business should still be on your radar. It possesses some attractive qualities that might entice investors. There are also some concerns to keep in mind. With that said, should you buy Nike stock hand over fist with $1,000 right now?
Focusing on favorable attributes
Businesses that have some kind of competitive advantage are in a position to stand the test of time. In Nike's case, I don't think anyone disagrees with the perspective that the company's brand is its greatest asset. Selling commoditized clothes and shoes has turned into a massive and profitable business because of how Nike is able to resonate with consumers across the globe.
Credit goes to product innovation, top-notch marketing proficiency, and a heightened focus on bolstering the digital foundation. These strategic priorities give me confidence that Nike will still be around decades from now.
The brand has helped lead to steady revenue and profit growth over the years. Nike is truly an international company, so it can lean on emerging markets to drive top-line gains as things mature in the U.S.
And driving profitability isn't an issue. In the last five years, Nike's quarterly gross and operating margins have averaged 44% and 12%, respectively. This situation has resulted in consistent free-cash-flow generation, which Nike uses to buy back shares and pay a dividend, boosting investor returns.
All of these favorable attributes are compelling reasons to want to own the stock.
NYSE: NKE
Key Data Points
Slowing down the pace
It's hard to ignore the fact that Nike is dealing with a slowdown. For fiscal 2024, executives see sales growing by just 1% after they rose 4.9% in fiscal 2022 and 9.6% in 2023. Macroeconomic headwinds, unsurprisingly, attract the blame.
Even more alarming, Nike saw sales dip 4% in the latest quarter in North America, its largest market, while revenue was up by just 4% in Greater China, which should typically be the fastest growing.
As of this writing, shares are trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.8. That looks expensive, but I think it's because Nike has been under-earning in the last few quarters, which can drive up that valuation multiple. In other words, in normal circumstances, with fewer markdowns and less promotional activity, the business should have reported higher net income, which would lower the P/E ratio to a more compelling level.
But regardless of your perspective on valuation, the real question comes down to whether or not this is still a great business. If the belief is yes, then the issues it's facing should prove to be temporary in nature. And once economic conditions improve and consumer confidence rises, Nike should return to solid growth.
I'm not so sure that this is the case, though. What concerns me is a real possibility that Nike's struggles point to bigger issues for the brand. Just look at management's previous financial forecasts. At the end of fiscal 2021, the company predicted that sales would increase at a high-single-digit percentage (at the low end) annually, and the operating margin would be in the high teens.
Almost three years later, Nike is performing well below those targets. Competition is also fierce, which has always been the case. But the advent of the internet has reduced barriers to entry for new brands to go direct-to-consumer with their offerings, while using low-cost digital platforms to conduct marketing activities and awareness.
The uncertainty regarding Nike's prospects makes me think it's best to wait for concrete improvements before buying shares.
