Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA 0.87%) stock fell on Feb. 29, the day after it reported its fourth-quarter earnings, but that didn't stop Goldman Sachs analyst Andrea Tan from issuing a sunny outlook, raising her price target for the stock from $19 to $21. Given that it trades for around $17 at recent prices, Tan's new estimate implies that it will rise by around 22% -- a potentially tidy return for those willing to dabble in buying a few of the biotech's shares.

One important driver will be Iovance's recently launched cell therapy Amtagvi, which treats metastatic melanoma. Regulators at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) only granted it an approval as of Feb. 16. Now, the question is whether Iovance will be able to commercialize the somewhat complicated medicine profitably and at a large enough scale to follow through on the market's expectations.

Opportunities abound, but execution risks remain

On average, Wall Street analysts calculate that Amtagvi will bring in $154 million in sales this year and roughly $331 million next year. Reaching profitability will likely take a bit longer, as Iovance's overhead costs will be fairly high.

As its cell therapy is manufactured using a sample of each patient's tumor as the starting material, the company is in the process of setting up a network of 50 treatment centers across the U.S., to be completed by the end of May. Assuming the medicine gets approved for sale in Canada and the E.U., which management expects this year, Iovance will need to repeat the process there.

Aside from the risk that making and administering the therapy will cost more than it earns, Iovance is conducting further research and development (R&D) work to get Amtagvi to a larger population of patients. Late-stage clinical trials are underway investigating whether it can help patients with cervical cancer and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), both in the context of being a monotherapy and as a combination therapy with other drugs. Management thinks that it can potentially double the number of eligible patients in the U.S. if the trials go as planned.

If they're right, this biotech stock will be on track to meet or even surpass Tan's price target.