Doesn't matter what "it" is. If you can sell it online, there's a good chance that Digital River
Wall Street Wisdom:
- General consensus. Ten analysts follow this company, splitting their views straight down the middle: five "buys," five "holds."
- Revenues. The consensus of analysts polled suggests that tomorrow Digital River will report booking 19% more sales in Q4 2005 than it did one year ago -- $57.2 million in all.
- Earnings. Analysts don't expect this to result in increased profits, however. They're looking for Digital River's net earnings to decline to $0.31 per share for the quarter. (Interestingly, even this number is $0.02 more than the company itself predicted three months ago.)
Margin watch:
Digital River's profits are a thing of beauty. The gross rises inexorably as time goes by. Operating margins are up nearly 50% over the past 18 months. And the average net is coming in 340 basis points higher, at last report, than it was a year and a half ago.
Margins% |
6/04 |
9/04 |
12/04 |
3/05 |
6/05 |
9/05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross |
85.9 |
85.9 |
86.9 |
87.5 |
88.1 |
88.8 |
Op. |
20.1 |
20.7 |
22.4 |
25.4 |
27.2 |
29.1 |
Net |
20.5 |
21.1 |
22.9 |
23.6 |
23.4 |
23.9 |
Options watch:
There was a time when I looked seriously at investing in Digital River, but after dipping my toe in the water, I immediately jumped out again, shocked at the company's egregious stock dilution (the share count had amounted to 80% growth in four years). Now I see that dilution has moderated to about 4.5% per annum in recent quarters. That's still not ideal, but it's good enough for a Fool to grin and bear it.
Valuation metrics:
Good enough, especially when you consider just how truly cheap Digital River's stock is looking today. Sure, a P/E of 27 isn't what you'd ordinarily call "cheap." But that P/E is predicated upon accounting profits, which vastly understate this company's actual cash profitability. With a price-to-free cash flow ratio of just 15, and analysts projecting 20% earnings growth for the foreseeable future, Digital River looks to be worth another dip.
Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of Digital River.