Shares of Brazilian airline Azul (NYSE:AZUL) were up more than 6% on Monday afternoon after a leading politician in Brazil talked up the effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Azul shares are down more than 60% year to date, but compared to other Latin American airlines, it has held up pretty well through the pandemic. The company seemingly has the capital and commitments in place to avoid a bankruptcy but is unlikely to rebound until the pandemic is over and traffic returns.
That could take years, but the stock got a boost on Monday thanks to comments by Sao Paulo Governor Joao Doria. The governor, according to Reuters, talked up the potential of a vaccine developed by Sinovac, saying initial data gathered during clinical testing in Brazil has been positive.
Shares of Brazilian airlines, like their U.S. counterparts, tend to trade up and down based on what is going on with the pandemic and the outlook for a resolution. There's some logic to it, but long-term investors would be better served by blocking out the day-to-day noise.
Azul appears well positioned to survive, but the stock is not going to get airborne until traffic returns. That's likely a year or more off, assuming quick progress on a vaccine. A politician's optimism is not going to make that recovery happen any quicker.
Given the prolonged timeline and the history of economic turbulence in Latin America that could complicate a recovery, I see no reason to rush in and buy ahead of a possible recovery.