Many pot stocks have, well, gone to pot over the past year or so. Most of the leaders in the Canadian and U.S. cannabis industries have seen their shares plunge. But that doesn't mean there aren't some good picks for long-term investors.
We asked three Motley Fool contributors to identify the top pot stocks for 2022. Here's why they chose Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR -0.17%), Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF 3.83%), and Village Farms International (VFF 6.69%).
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The REIT stuff
Eric Volkman (Innovative Industrial Properties): Many investors, and not a few analysts and pundits, deem Innovative Industrial Properties to be the best marijuana stock money can buy.
There's plenty to back that assertion. IIP is unique in the marijuana world, as it continues to grow its business consistently and land in the black on a regular basis -- two goals that often elude peers in this industry where it's hard to make a buck.
And while it's not the only real estate investment trust (REIT) operating exclusively in the sector, IIP is the only weed REIT that many funds and investors hold. That's because of its size, its prominence, and its performance.
Let's take the second of those two factors: prominence. IIP leases property to some of the top names in the cannabis sector. These include companies like Cresco Labs, Trulieve Cannabis, and Curaleaf. All three aim to operate sprawling networks across the U.S. consisting of dispensaries and other facilities. So it's a very opportune time to be a landlord to such clients.
IIP also specializes in sale-leaseback deals, which as their name implies means that a business like a REIT buys a property from a company, then turns around and immediately leases it back to said company. This is particularly alluring to marijuana operators, who typically struggle with cash flow and profitability, and thus could use the pile of ready cash a real estate sale can generate.
With these considerable headwinds at its back, IIP keeps growing its business (not to mention that favorite element of many REIT investors, its dividend). For full-year 2021, revenue rose by a very strong 75% year over year to just under $205 million. As it did, non-GAAP (adjusted) funds from operations -- or AFFO, widely considered to be the truest profitability metric for REITs -- nearly doubled to just under $175 million.
The future looks rather bright, too. Yes, U.S. recreational marijuana legalization is advancing more in fits than starts these days. However, public support for such reform is strong, and notable politicians are at least giving lip service to decriminalization (if not outright legalization) at the federal level.
Even if that doesn't happen, the marijuana industry is still growing in the U.S. states where it's planted seeds, and more are coming on board. No prizes for guessing which REIT will be present there to take full advantage.
Trulieve powers forward with market penetration
Alex Carchidi (Trulieve Cannabis): As the leading marijuana company in Florida and one of the fastest-growing multi-state operators (MSOs) in the U.S., Trulieve Cannabis has a lot of momentum. Its business model is a vertically integrated cannabis pure play, meaning it grows, processes, and sells medicinal marijuana to consumers from its branded retail locations.
And business is booming thanks to its strategy of expanding its operations into a trio of regional hubs throughout the U.S. Trulieve's quarterly revenue has skyrocketed by more than 403% in the last three years. Given that it's profitable, the main constraints on increasing its income even further are production and distribution capacity, both of which are being actively expanded.
In the last three months of 2021, the company opened up 11 new dispensaries, seven of which were in its home market of Florida. It recently bought a massive new cultivation facility for its Arizona hub, spending $13.75 million in cash. For Trulieve, that kind of money is peanuts, as it had more than $213 million in cash as of the third quarter. It also generated $18.6 million in net income in the most recent three month period.
Moving forward, expect more of the same from Trulieve. Extending its long-running lead in Florida, where it holds approximately 50% of the market, will make it hard for competitors to get established. Likewise, pushing into its newly established hub in Arizona will ensure that it continues to be a leader there as well.
In a nutshell, Trulieve has what many other cannabis companies simply don't: profitability, rapid growth, and a realistic plan to keep on growing. That's what makes it a great marijuana stock to buy this year.
Producing profits
Keith Speights (Village Farms International): Which company ranks as the strongest Canadian cannabis producer? My vote goes to Village Farms. Unlike Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth , Village Farms is already profitable. And its cannabis operation claims a longer streak of delivering positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) than Tilray does.
Village Farms' financial success is a direct result of its market success. The company's Pure Sunfarms remains the top-selling brand in the dried flower category in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario. CEO Michael DeGiglio noted in Village Farms' fourth-quarter conference call that the company more than quadrupled its market share in Ontario, Canada's biggest market, in 2021.
The company appears to be in a good position to keep this momentum going. Its recent acquisition of Rose LifeScience should boost sales in Quebec. And while some of its peers are reducing capacity, Village Farms continues to expand -- albeit with what DeGiglio calls "a measured approach."
One key reason behind this expansion is to support international growth. Village Farms hopes to begin exporting cannabis to Germany and Israel in the second half of this year. It has an irrevocable option to buy a majority stake in one of the 10 companies in the best position to compete in the Netherlands, which could become Europe's first legal recreational marijuana market.
Village Farms also has its foot in the door in the U.S. market. Although cannabis isn't legal at a federal level in the U.S. yet, the company acquired Balanced Health Botanicals last year. Balance Health is one of the top CBD products companies in the U.S.
Of course, Village Farms also still maintains a solid produce business selling tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers in North America. This segment generated a little over half of the company's total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Shares of Village Farms have plunged close to 70% over the past 12 months. I think that sell-off is way overdone considering the company's underlying business strength. The stock is also attractively valued with shares trading at only 13.2 times expected earnings.
