The stock market has crumbled this year. High inflation and rising interest rates have caused the S&P 500 to dive headlong into a bear market. The broad-based index is currently 21% off its high, but many individual growth stocks have fared even worse. For instance, Shopify (SHOP -2.37%) and Global-e Online (GLBE -2.15%) have seen their share prices tumble 80% and 73%, respectively, leaving both stocks near 52-week lows.
However, some Wall Street analysts remain upbeat. Paul Treiber of RBC Capital has a price target on Shopify of $55 per share, 133% higher than its 52-week low of $23.63. And James Faucette of Morgan Stanley has a price target of $51 per share on Global-e Online, which implies 226% upside from its 52-week low of $15.63.
Is it time to buy these growth stocks?
Shopify: Omnichannel commerce made easy
Shopify is the central nervous system for over two million businesses. Its software simplifies commerce by enabling merchants to manage multiple sales channels from a single platform, including online marketplaces like Amazon, social media like Instagram, and direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites. Shopify also provides adjacent solutions for payment processing, financing, and marketing, among others.
The company has struggled in the current economic environment. Revenue climbed just 22% to $1.4 billion in the third quarter, and the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, compared to an adjusted profit of $0.08 per share last year. Worse yet, Shopify may continue to struggle until inflation normalizes and consumer spending rebounds. But these temporary headwinds are obscuring its true potential. In fact, RBC analyst Paul Treiber recently called Shopify "one of the most compelling long-term growth stories."
According to G2 Grid, Shopify is the most popular e-commerce software in terms of market presence, and Shopify Plus -- its commerce suite for larger companies -- is the second most popular platform. That success stems from its support for omnichannel commerce. While marketplace operators herd sellers onto one platform, Shopify helps brands grow across virtually any channel. That includes brick-and-mortar stores and D2C websites, which gives brands complete control over the buyer experience -- something they lack on a marketplace like Amazon -- and can increase the odds of lasting customer relationships.
That means Shopify is set to capitalize on a large and growing addressable market. E-commerce sales worldwide are expected to increase 10% annually to reach $7.4 trillion by 2025, according to eMarketer. Better yet, Shopify has a particularly strong foothold in North America. It powered 10.3% of retail e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year -- second only to Amazon -- and that market is expected to grow 12% annually to reach $1.5 trillion by 2025.
Currently, shares trade at about 8.5 times sales, an absolute bargain compared to the three-year average of over 36 times sales. That creates a compelling buying opportunity, though investors shouldn't expect triple-digit returns in the next year. The macroeconomic environment is far too uncertain to warrant that type of near-term optimism.
Global-e Online: Cross-border e-commerce made easy
Global-e simplifies cross-border e-commerce by helping merchants optimize their digital stores for international buyers. The Global-e platform localizes details like language, currency, and payment options, and it surfaces data-driven insights to help merchants understand shopper behavior on a market-by-market basis. Those services boost international conversion rates, often by more than 60%, according to the company.
Additionally, Global-e provides fulfillment services through a partner network of shipping carriers, and it offers support for returns and customer service. Better yet, its platform removes much of the regulatory complexity associated with international expansion by helping merchants calculate and pay import duties and foreign sales tax. In a nutshell, Global-e makes it easy for businesses to move into new markets, and that value proposition has the company growing like gangbusters.
In the second quarter, Global-e saw gross merchandise volume (GMV) soar 64% to $534 million as more brands joined the platform. That feat is particularly impressive given the state of the global economy. In turn, quarterly revenue jumped 52% to $87 million, and the company posted positive free cash flow (FCF) of $30 million. That equates to an impressive FCF margin of 34%.
Better yet, investors have good reason to believe that momentum will continue. Cross-border e-commerce sales will total $736 billion in 2023, according to Forrester Research, but Global-e handled just $990 million in GMV through the first half of 2022. That puts the company in front of a massive opportunity, and management has set in motion a strong growth strategy. For instance, Global-e powers Shopify Markets Pro, a sophisticated cross-border solution that makes it possible for Shopify merchants to expand into more than 150 markets overnight.
Currently, shares trade at just over 11 times sales, a discount to the historic average of nearly 25. That's why investors should consider buying this growth stock, though Global-e is best viewed as a long-term investment. Triple-digit returns are in the cards but only with enough time for the company to expand into its huge market.
