The stock market is on a good run so far this year following a tumultuous 2022, when the surging inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve sent investors into panic mode. Hopefully, the rebound is here to stay amid a resilient economy and easing inflation.
U.S. inflation increased 6.4% on an annualized basis in January 2023, down from the 6.5% annualized increase seen in the previous month and well below June 2022's big jump of 9.1%. Meanwhile, a strong labor market, growth in retail sales, and an improvement in manufacturing activity could continue to act as tailwinds for the stock market.
Shares of Airbnb (ABNB 1.20%) and Twilio (TWLO 1.48%) are flying high amid the broader stock market rally. While Airbnb stock is up almost 45% so far this year, Twilio has shot up 30%. Let's look at the reasons why the terrific rally in these stocks could be here to stay and why investors should consider buying them while they are still selling at a discount.
1. Airbnb
Airbnb gave investors a big reason to cheer on Feb. 14 when it released its fourth-quarter 2022 results. The vacation rentals platform delivered better-than-expected results, turned in a big profit for the full year, and delivered solid guidance.
More specifically, Airbnb's full-year revenue surged 40% to $8.4 billion. The company's 2022 net income came in at $1.9 billion, a massive improvement over 2021's loss of $352 million.
The company's terrific results can be attributed to a spike in travel demand that led to a 31% jump in nights and experiences booked in 2022 to nearly 394 million. The healthy demand for Airbnb's platform is also evident from a 35% increase in gross bookings value to $63.2 billion last year.
The faster growth in the company's bookings value as compared to the number of nights and experiences booked suggests that people are spending more money on its platform. This is evident from a 5% jump (excluding the currency exchange impact) in Airbnb's average daily rates last quarter over the fourth quarter of 2021. Additionally, Airbnb's focus on reducing costs enabled the company to substantially increase margins, with the adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) increasing 8 percentage points over 2021 to 35% in 2022.
And now, the company's outlook indicates that it is set up for another solid year. Airbnb has guided for first-quarter 2023 revenue in the range of $1.75 billion to $1.82 billion, the midpoint of which would be an 18.5% improvement over the prior-year period. The solid top-line growth is expected to translate into a 15% increase in earnings as well. More importantly, Airbnb is expected to clock consistent double-digit growth over the next couple of years as well.
ABNB Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Even better, analysts anticipate almost 90% annual earnings growth from Airbnb over the next five years. It won't be surprising to see the company achieve such impressive growth, as the vacation rentals market could be worth $315 billion in 2031 as compared to $91 billion in 2021, according to Allied Market Research.
With tourism activity improving and Airbnb holding a solid share of the vacation rentals market, the company is well-placed to deliver the terrific growth that analysts are expecting from it in the long run. As such, investors looking for a growth stock should consider buying Airbnb before it soars higher.
2. Twilio
Shares of Twilio received a shot in the arm thanks to the company's impressive fourth-quarter 2022 results released on Feb. 15. Investors cheered the cloud communications specialist's focus on profitability as it turned in an adjusted profit of $0.22 per share last quarter, as compared to analysts' expectations for a loss of $0.09 per share.
Twilio's Q4 2022 revenue increased 22% year over year to $1.02 billion, driven by an increase in the number of active customer accounts, as well as increased customer spending. The company ended the year with 290,000 active customers, an increase of 13% over the prior year. Additionally, a dollar-based net expansion rate of 110% for the quarter suggests that customers adopted more of Twilio's offerings or increased their usage of its products.
The dollar-based net expansion rate compares the total revenue from active customers in a quarter to the revenue generated from the same cohort of customers in the year-ago period. So a reading of more than 100% suggests that customers spent more money on the company's platform.
More importantly, Twilio's focus on restructuring the business and reducing costs by taking tough measures such as reducing the employee count led to a non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income of $33 million last quarter, as compared to a loss of $27 million in the year-ago period.
Twilio is anticipating $1 billion in revenue in the current quarter at the midpoint of its guidance range, which would be an increase of nearly 15% over last year. It also forecasts adjusted earnings of $0.20 per share, which would be a massive improvement over the prior-year period's breakeven level. Twilio's focus on cost efficiency explains why analysts expect the company to post earnings of $0.21 per share in 2023, as compared to last year's loss of $0.15 per share.
More importantly, Twilio's bottom line is expected to head higher in the next fiscal year as well.
TWLO EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Consensus estimates suggest that Twilio could clock annual earnings growth of 102% for the next five years. It won't be surprising to see the company deliver such solid long-term growth, given the secular opportunity in the market it is operating in, as well as its focus on keeping tight control on costs.
The cloud-based contact center market in which Twilio operates is expected to clock a compound annual growth rate of 18% over the next decade and generate $120 billion in annual revenue in 2032, according to Future Market Insights. So, Twilio could turn out to be a top growth stock in the long run, and the good part is that investors can buy it on the cheap right now, as it is trading at 3 times sales, as compared to its five-year average price-to-sales ratio of 16.4. This is an opportunity that investors may not want to miss out on, as the stock's rally seems here to stay.
