Nvidia's (NVDA 2.49%) first-quarter report is one of the most important things to happen in the stock market this year. Not only did the semiconductor specialist deliver Q1 sales and earnings that beat expectations, it also issued forward guidance that crushed even the most optimistic targets.
Following an incredible post-earnings rally, Nvidia stock is now up 165% across 2023's trading. Is the company still a smart investment at today's prices, or has the processing leader's valuation become overheated? Read on for a look at bullish and bearish takes from two Motley Fool contributors.
Bull case: Nvidia is at the outset of a massive opportunity
Keith Noonan: When it comes to high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) and related variations, Nvidia is the clear-cut category leader. While Advanced Micro Devices has a solid foothold in the consumer GPU market, Nvidia dominates in the business segment that will be pushing artificial intelligence (AI) applications and services forward. The surge in demand powered by this segment is impossible to ignore following the company's recent earnings report and forecasting.
Nvidia's guidance for $11 billion in sales in the current quarter absolutely blew the doors off the average analyst target for revenue of $7.15 billion in the period. After posting sales of $7.2 billion in the first quarter, the processing leader expects sales to increase 53% on a sequential basis in the current quarter.
While the new short-term growth outlook has already powered a rally and been priced into the stock, it could be a sign of a massive transformation set to play out on a much longer timeline.
The company has started to offer AI software and computation power as a service -- a move that potentially opens the door for significant margin improvements for the business. The processing specialist has also forged partnerships with leading enterprise software companies, including Microsoft and ServiceNow, and its technologies are positioned to be the foundation for a wave of next-generation AI services.
Thanks to its leading position in GPUs and other advanced processors, Nvidia looks poised to play a key role in pushing AI forward. With its technologies potentially paving the way for a massive new services-based business, the market may still be underestimating the company's long-term potential.
Bear case: A bloated valuation
George Budwell: Chipmaker and networking solutions company Nvidia has been a prime beneficiary of this year's artificial intelligence boom. Following its latest quantum leap forward -- sparked by a stellar fiscal 2024 first quarter -- the AI pioneer's shares recently hit an all-time high and were up by a staggering 168% for the year.
Even so, some analysts think the stock is still undervalued, relative to its long-term commercial opportunity in AI chips and platforms designed to serve the broader AI user community. The demand for AI chips alone is expected to form the basis of one of the fastest-growing markets in the world over the course of the current decade, after all. Before investors get too excited, however, it might be a good idea to consider Nvidia's sky-high valuation.
Nvidia’s stock is presently trading at a forward-looking earnings yield of just 3.6% under a best-case scenario. By comparison, a 10-year U.S. Treasury bill yields 3.74% and the average large-cap tech peer has an earnings yield of 7.7%. The bottom line is that Wall Street is expecting Nvidia's sales to go parabolic over the next several years due to a prolonged surge in demand for all things AI.
Is this bullish scenario possible? While it's certainly possible that AI becomes a central component of everyday life for both individuals and large companies alike, this hyper-growth thesis is far from a sure thing. The fact of the matter is that AI is in its nascent stages. Early adopters are still in the process of fumbling around with it, trying to figure out how this cutting-edge tech fits into the broader scheme of things.
AI has real potential to disrupt a whole host of industries and fundamentally alter even mundane aspects of daily life such as driving, shopping for groceries, or doing household chores. Then again, futurists of generations past also predicted the advent of flying cars, fully autonomous robots, and the eradication of many severe human illnesses by 2023. And yet, here we are -- nary a flying car to be seen.
The point is that AI's long-term trajectory is still something of a speculation at this early juncture. Hence, it might be a good idea to take a cautious approach with this premium-priced tech stock right now.
Is Nvidia stock a buy?
There's no doubt that Nvidia is priced for very strong performance at this point. Its forward-looking valuation profile comes with a lot of risk and there are a variety of possible business-specific and macroeconomic scenarios that could cause the company's share price to fall from current levels or fail to keep pace with the performance of the broader market. For risk-averse investors, buying the stock near its all-time high probably doesn't make much sense.
On the other hand, Nvidia may remain in the early stages of benefiting from a massive technology shift. While it's possible that the company could be disrupted, it currently enjoys a leadership position in a hardware category that will likely play a key role in continuing to push AI forward. What's more, the processing-specialist's push to make AI-as-a-service a substantial business component could prove very rewarding for the company and its shareholders over the long term.
